$BUY XOM AUG 15 110/115 CALL SPREAD

I recommend a bullish call spread post-earnings because Exxon Mobil's (XOM) technical setup and current high implied volatility suggest a potential upside move after earnings, especially given the institutional accumulation noted and the stock's position near support levels.

Buy XOM Aug 15 110/115 Call Spread
Stock Price: $111.11 | Entry: $1.80 debit

📊 Trade Metrics

• Risk: $180 | Reward: $320 (177.8% return)
• Breakeven: $111.80
• Max Loss: $180 if XOM < $110 at expiry
• Max Profit: $320 if XOM > $115 at expiry
• Probability of Profit: 48% (based on delta)
• Days to Expiration: 38

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Net Delta: 0.45 (bullish)
• Theta: -$3/day (time decay cost)
• Vega: $12 (benefits from IV increase)
• Current IV: 31.6% (above historical 26.0%)
• IV Rank: 100% (High - buy premium strategies disfavored but IV could increase post-earnings)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.07 (bullish sentiment)

🎯 Why This Trade
Exxon Mobil has seen increased institutional buying from Strategic Blueprint LLC and World Investment Advisors, indicating confidence in the stock's future performance. Despite UBS lowering its price target, the "buy" rating was maintained, showing continued bullish sentiment. The stock is trading just above its 20-day moving average, suggesting potential support around $110.06. The RSI is neutral at 55.22, leaving room for upward momentum post-earnings. With high IV Rank, this strategy benefits from directional movement rather than volatility contraction.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 31.6% vs Historical: 26.0%
• IV Rank: 100% (High - favors premium selling, but post-earnings movement can justify buying)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$2.21 (1.99%)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.07 (bullish sentiment)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $120
• Technical: Near 20MA support, RSI neutral, potential post-earnings volatility

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order at $1.80 debit (mid of $1.75/$1.85)
• Target: Close at $3.60 (100% profit)
• Stop: Exit if XOM breaks below $108
• Time Stop: Close 5 days before expiration if target not met

📅 Economic Events: CPI July 11, Fed Rate Decision July 30, XOM Earnings August 1

🔍 Market Overview
The broader market regime with the Fed hinting at potential rate cuts and geopolitical risks impacting the energy sector suggests a cautious but potentially bullish stance post-earnings. XOM's fundamentals are robust, with a profit margin of 9.9% and a strong dividend yield of 3.53%. The stock's current trading near support levels, combined with recent institutional buying, sets the stage for a potential bullish move. Sector peers like CVX and COP show resilience, aligning with the potential for a sector-wide bounce. This call spread capitalizes on post-earnings movement with a defined risk profile.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 110 Call intrinsic value: $1.11 (ITM), trading at $3.00 ✅
• 115 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), trading at $1.20 ✅
• Put-Call Parity Check: C - P = S - K holds within tolerance ✅
• Spread pricing verified: Debit spread with proper bid/ask alignment ✅

This bullish call spread leverages potential post-earnings movement, aligning with current institutional confidence and technical support levels.