$VTI Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL VTI DEC 19 330/335 PUT SPREAD

I recommend a bull put spread on VTI with the December 19 expiration and strikes at 330 and 335 because the term structure shows near- to mid-term options are trading at fair to slightly elevated implied volatility levels (Clean IV ~13.3% vs baseline 11.2%), indicating premium is somewhat rich but not extreme. The current IV rank is 100%, favoring premium selling strategies. VTI is trading bullishly at $336.81, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, supported by recent gains in large-cap tech holdings like Nvidia. The put-call volume ratio of 0.44 and put-call open interest ratio of 0.05 indicate strong bullish market sentiment. This spread offers defined risk with a high probability of profit given the technical and sentiment backdrop.

Sell VTI Dec 19 335/330 Put Spread
Stock Price: $336.81 | Entry: Receive approx. $1.20 credit (Bid: $1.20, Ask: $1.25)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Max Profit: $120 per spread (credit received)
• Max Risk: $380 per spread (difference between strikes $5.00 minus premium $1.20)
• Breakeven at expiration: $333.80 (strike 335 minus credit received)
• Probability of profit: High (stock above short put strike, bullish sentiment)
• Days to Expiration: 37 days (Dec 19, 2025)

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Volatility: 11.2%
• Clean IV Dec 19: 13.3% (above baseline, suggesting premium selling edge)
• IV Rank: 100% (historically high, favoring selling premium)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.44 (bullish)
• Market Maker Max Pain: 340 (close to current price, supporting stability)

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Delta short 335 put: approx. -0.30 (moderate downside risk)
• Theta: positive for seller, benefits from time decay
• Vega: negative, benefits if IV contracts

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure indicates options are slightly rich relative to historical volatility, favoring premium selling. VTI’s price at $336.81 is above key moving averages (50-day and 200-day), showing technical strength. Market sentiment is bullish with heavy call buying and low put open interest. The market intelligence highlights gains in VTI’s largest tech holdings (Nvidia, Eli Lilly, Broadcom), supporting continued upward momentum. Selling the 335/330 put spread captures premium with limited risk, benefiting from time decay and potential IV contraction ahead of the next CPI report on November 13, 2025. The strike selection provides a buffer below current price, aligning with expected daily moves (~±4.57 points).

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 21.5% (high relative to historical 7.3%) but Clean IV after stripping event premium is fair at 13.3%
• Expected Daily Move: ±4.57 points (1.36%) supports buffer below 335 strike
• Put/Call OI Ratio: 0.05 (very bullish)
• Technical: RSI near neutral (59.5), price above 20- and 50-day MAs
• Market Intelligence: No major negative news; positive momentum from tech sector holdings

🔍 Earnings & Events Check

• No VTI earnings (ETF) but macro events: CPI on Nov 13, 2025 (1 day away) may add volatility
• Dec 19 expiration is after CPI, allowing time to capture any post-event premium decay

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order to sell the 335/330 put spread for $1.20 credit (midpoint of bid-ask $1.20/$1.25)
• Target: Close at $0.40 credit to lock ~66% profit
• Stop: Close if VTI breaks below $330 decisively before expiration
• Time Stop: Consider closing 3-5 days before expiration to avoid gamma risk

📅 Economic Events

• CPI Nov 13, 2025 (tomorrow) could cause short-term volatility; this spread benefits if volatility contracts post-event
• Fed Rate Decision Dec 10, 2025 (before expiration) may affect market sentiment

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 335 Put intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), trading at ~$2.50 bid/ask (consistent with premium)
• 330 Put intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), trading at ~$1.30 bid/ask
• Spread intrinsic value: $0 (OTM spread), credit pricing above intrinsic value confirmed
• Put-call parity holds within tolerance for these strikes and expiration

🔍 Market Overview

The market regime remains constructive for broad equity ETFs like VTI, supported by strong fundamentals in large-cap tech and favorable technicals with price above key moving averages. The Fed’s recent stance suggests no immediate rate hikes, with inflation data awaited tomorrow (CPI). This environment supports selling premium with defined risk, especially in the absence of negative catalysts. The 200-day MA at $301.77 provides a long-term support cushion well below current price. Sector leadership in tech and healthcare underpins VTI’s stability. Dividend yield at 1.11% adds to total return potential.

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Confidence Level: Moderate to High — The trade aligns with technical strength, bullish sentiment, and favorable term structure for premium selling. However, near-term CPI data could cause short-term volatility, so defined-risk spreads are prudent.

Risk Assessment: Limited risk defined by $5 width minus premium received. Risk of loss if VTI falls below $330 by expiration, but probability is low given current momentum and market breadth. Monitor post-CPI volatility closely.

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This trade balances income generation with risk management in a high IV environment, leveraging VTI’s technical and fundamental strength.