$TMO Options Intelligence

# TMO Options Analysis: November 17, 2025

Current Market Regime Assessment

The broader market is showing cautious optimism heading into a critical week. Tech-led futures are rising (+0.6% Nasdaq 100) ahead of Nvidia earnings, while traders digest Berkshire Hathaway's $5 billion Alphabet stake—signaling renewed AI confidence. However, Bitcoin's 30% pullback from peaks and flat Dow futures suggest risk-off undertones. The September jobs report (Thursday) looms large for Fed rate path expectations, with potential rate cuts still in play. This creates a mixed backdrop: growth stocks supported by AI narratives, but vulnerable to economic data disappointments.

For TMO specifically, today's insider selling by the COO ($2.76M) and Alberta Investment Management Corp. selling activity suggests profit-taking after the strong October earnings beat and guidance raise. The stock is slightly down (-0.07%) despite this supportive macro environment, indicating near-term consolidation.

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## 🎯 SELL TMO NOV 21 640 CALL

I recommend this short call because the term structure reveals a critical premium-selling opportunity: the 4-day expiration (Nov 21) is trading at 42.8% Clean IV—significantly elevated above the 28.8% baseline volatility. This represents a 48% IV premium that decays rapidly into expiration. Combined with TMO's RSI at 65.26 (neutral, not overbought), the stock shows no momentum justifying the inflated near-term premium. The Max Pain level sits at 640, directly at your short strike—market makers are pricing for mean reversion here. With only 4 days until expiration and an expected daily move of ±$10.66, the 640 call (61.8 points OTM) has minimal intrinsic risk while capturing substantial theta decay.

Sell TMO Nov 21 640 Call
Stock Price: $578.32 | Entry: Sell to open at $0.13 (mid of bid/ask)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Credit Received: $13 per contract ($1,300 per 100 shares)
• Max Profit: $13 (if TMO stays below 640 at Nov 21 expiry)
• Max Loss: Unlimited (naked call risk)
• Breakeven: $640.13
• Win Rate: 99%+ (delta: 0.013)
• Days to Expiration: 4

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Vol: 28.8%
• 4-day Clean IV: 42.8% (48% premium to baseline = STRONG SELL signal)
• 9-day Clean IV: 33.5% (fair value)
• Market IV: 29.3% (current)
• Earnings Multiplier: 2.94x (next earnings Jan 29—73 days out)
• Calendar Opportunity: YES—extreme - 4d IV at 42.8% vs 9d at 33.5% = 9.3% differential
• Recommendation: SELL the overpriced 4-day, avoid naked exposure

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Delta: 0.013 (99% probability OTM)
• Theta: -$0.106/day (rapid decay works in your favor)
• Vega: -$0.08 (benefits from IV crush into expiration)
• Current IV: 42.8% for Nov 21 (vs 29.3% average)
• IV Rank: 100% (highest tier—premium selling favored)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.35 (very bullish—heavy call buying inflating premiums)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure screams SELL: the 4-day Nov 21 expiration is trading at 42.8% Clean IV, a massive 48% premium above the 28.8% baseline volatility. This is textbook overpriced near-term premium. The Put/Call Volume Ratio of 0.35 reveals heavy call buying pushing call prices higher—retail FOMO into earnings season. However, TMO's RSI at 65.26 shows no overbought conditions to justify the rally, and today's insider selling by the COO suggests institutional profit-taking. Max Pain sits exactly at 640, indicating market makers are hedged for mean reversion. With only 4 days to expiration and an expected daily move of ±$10.66, the 640 strike is 61.8 points away—a 10.7% cushion. Theta decay accelerates dramatically in the final 4 days, with -$0.106/day working in your favor. The stock trades 1.5% above its 20-day MA ($569.85), suggesting no momentum breakout. MACD is bearish (13.92 vs signal 15.00), adding confluence.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 42.8% vs Historical: 14.0% (305% elevated!)
• IV Rank: 100% (maximum—sell premium strategies dominate)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$10.66 (1.84%)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.35 (call buying inflates premiums)
• Market Maker Max Pain: 640 (exactly your short strike)
• Technical: RSI 65.26 (neutral), MACD bearish, Price 1.5% above 20MA
• Insider Activity: COO sold $2.76M today (profit-taking signal)

🔍 Earnings Date Check

Earnings: January 29, 2026 (73 days away)
Recommended expiration: November 21, 2025 (4 days)
✅ Validation: Expires WELL BEFORE earnings—no earnings risk exposure. This is a pure theta decay trade, not an earnings play.

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Sell at $0.13 (limit order)
• Target: Close at $0.05 (62% profit) by Nov 19
• Stop: Exit if TMO breaks above $635 (5 points from strike)
• Time Stop: Close 2 days before Nov 21 expiry (Nov 19) to avoid gamma risk

📅 **Economic Events This