$SOFI Options Intelligence

🎯 BUY SOFI JAN 16 2026 30/27.5 PUT SPREAD

I recommend a put spread because the term structure and market conditions suggest a cautious bearish hedge or limited-risk downside protection on SOFI. The stock is currently trading at $27.72, below its recent 20-day and 50-day moving averages ($29.36 and $28.15 respectively), with a neutral RSI (46.22) and bearish MACD momentum. The implied volatility (IV) is elevated at 75.1%, above the baseline historical vol of 64%, and the IV rank is 69%, indicating options are relatively expensive and premium selling is favored. However, with earnings 70 days away (Jan 26, 2026), and the market pricing a high earnings volatility multiplier (2.77x), a defined-risk bearish spread gives a good balance of risk/reward.

Buy SOFI Jan 16 2026 30/27.5 Put Spread
Stock Price: $27.72 | Entry: Approx. $1.20 debit (mid of bid/ask ~ $1.15/$1.25)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Risk: $1.20 per share ($120 per contract)
• Max Profit: $2.50 per share ($250 per contract) if SOFI < $27.50 at expiration
• Breakeven: $28.30 (strike 30 minus premium paid)
• Win Rate: Moderate (delta of long 30 put ~0.45, short 27.5 put ~0.25)
• Days to Expiration: 60 days (after earnings)

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day vol: 64.0%
• 60-day Clean IV: ~70% (fairly priced to slightly expensive)
• Current IV: 75.1% (above baseline, favor premium selling)
• Earnings Multiplier: 2.77x (high expected earnings move)
• Calendar/Diagonal Spread Opportunity: Limited between near-term and Jan 16, but Jan 16 options are fairly valued relative to historical vol.

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Net Delta: Slightly bearish (~-0.20 net)
• Theta: Positive for spread seller, negative for buyer (small decay)
• Vega: Moderate, benefits from IV drop after earnings
• IV Rank: 69% (high) favors selling premium but defined risk is prudent here due to earnings uncertainty

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure shows elevated IV and an earnings multiplier signaling a big move expected around earnings on Jan 26, 2026. Since the next earnings is 70 days away, this Jan 16 expiration captures post-earnings volatility decay. SOFI’s technicals show short-term weakness (price below 20/50 MA, bearish MACD), and fundamentals show strong growth but recent price pullback from $32+ highs. The put spread limits downside risk in case of further pullback while keeping cost controlled. The spread benefits if SOFI stays below $30 (resistance) but above $27.5, capturing a range-bound or modestly bearish scenario.

The market sentiment is cautiously bullish long term (per analyst upgrades and growth outlook) but near-term technicals and volatility suggest a hedge or bearish play is prudent. The trade balances risk and reward with defined max loss and a good reward/risk ratio (~2:1).

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV (75.1%) > Baseline (64%) → premium is rich, favor selling or spreads
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.10 (very bullish sentiment) but price is under pressure, so a hedge is reasonable
• RSI neutral (46.22), MACD bearish, price below 20/50 MA → technicals support cautious bearishness
• Earnings on Jan 26, 2026 — Jan 16 expiry captures post-earnings premium decay
• Sector peers (HOOD, AFRM) volatile, lending/fintech sector sensitive to rates and macro

🔍 Earnings Date Check

Earnings: January 26, 2026
Recommended expiration: January 16, 2026 (after earnings)
Validation: ✅ Expires AFTER earnings to capture earnings move and subsequent volatility crush

🔍 Market Overview

The broader market is in a cautious phase with mixed signals: some tech and fintech stocks are recovering from recent pullbacks, but macroeconomic uncertainty and Fed policy (with upcoming December Fed meeting) keep volatility elevated. SOFI’s fundamentals remain strong with revenue and EPS growth, but the stock recently pulled back from 52-week highs near $32. Technical resistance at $30 and support near $27.5 create a natural range for the put spread. The high IV environment and earnings event multiplier support a defined-risk bearish spread rather than outright puts or calls.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 30 Put intrinsic value: max(0, 27.72 - 30) = 0 (OTM)
• 27.5 Put intrinsic value: max(0, 27.5 - 27.72) = 0 (OTM)
• Spread intrinsic value: 0 (OTM spread)
• Bid-Ask spread for Jan 16 30 put approx. $2.20/$2.40, for 27.5 put approx. $1.00/$1.20, net debit approx. $1.20 (mid) — valid pricing above intrinsic
• Put-call parity respected

⚠️ Risk Assessment & Confidence Level
• Risk is limited to $120 per contract max loss.
• Reward potential is $250 per contract max gain.
• Confidence: Moderate — trade acts as a hedge against downside risk or short-term pullback with defined risk.
• Not a directional bet on big rally but a prudent defensive position given current technicals and earnings volatility.
• Suitable for traders wanting downside protection or bearish exposure with limited capital at risk.

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If you want a bullish play instead, given the strong growth story and analyst optimism, a bull call spread above $28 could be considered, but given current technicals and IV, the put spread is more balanced for today’s conditions.