$SOFI Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL SOFI SEP 19 28/30 CALL SPREAD

I recommend a bear call spread because the term structure shows very high implied volatility (IV) with a 30-day Clean IV around 55.5%, well above the 45% baseline historical volatility, indicating options are overpriced and premium selling is favored. SOFI just hit a new 52-week high near $27.77, with heavy call volume at the $28 strike expiring September 19, 2025, suggesting resistance around that level. The put/call volume ratio is very low (0.08), showing strong bullish call buying, but the IV rank at 100% and elevated IV premium imply a potential short-term pullback or consolidation. The Fed meeting tomorrow and expectations of rate cuts add uncertainty, favoring defined-risk premium collection strategies. The stock price at $27.67 is just below the $28 strike, making the 28/30 call spread a good risk-controlled way to capitalize on limited upside near-term.

Sell SOFI Sep 19 28/30 Call Spread
Stock Price: $27.67 | Entry: Sell 28 call at ~$1.35 / Buy 30 call at ~$0.55 = Net credit approx. $0.80 per share ($80 per spread)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Max Profit: $80 per spread (net credit)
• Max Loss: $120 per spread (difference between strikes $2.00 - credit $0.80)
• Breakeven at expiration: $28.80
• Win Rate: High if SOFI stays below $28 at Sep 19 expiry
• Days to Expiration: 3 days (very short-term)

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Vol: 45.0%
• 3-day Clean IV: ~55.5% (10.5% above baseline = SELL premium)
• Market IV: ~66% on near-term options (overpriced)
• IV Rank: 100% (peak volatility, favors premium selling)
• Earnings Multiplier: 3.95x (high expected move but earnings on Nov 4, so no earnings risk here)
• Heavy call volume at $28 strike (26,963 contracts traded) indicates a short-term resistance level
• Expected daily move ±$1.13 (4.08%) supports tight range near current price

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Delta short 28 call: ~0.53
• Theta: Positive for seller due to short time and high IV
• Vega: Negative for seller, benefits if IV drops post Fed meeting
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.08 (bullish calls dominate but IV high)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure shows near-term options are richly priced with IV well above historical norms, creating an ideal environment to sell premium. SOFI’s recent surge to a 52-week high at $27.77 and heavy call volume at $28 strike suggest resistance just above current price. With the Fed meeting tomorrow likely to introduce volatility and uncertainty, a defined-risk bear call spread captures premium while limiting downside. The 3-day expiration concentrates premium decay and reduces exposure time. This trade aligns with technical resistance, market volatility regime, and recent unusual options activity.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 64.8% vs Historical: 48.6%
• IV Rank: 100% (extreme premium)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$1.13 (4.08%)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.08 (very bullish calls) but elevated IV tempers bullishness
• Market Maker Max Pain: $30 (close to short call strike)
• RSI(14): 69.25 (neutral, near overbought)
• Price above 20-day MA by 9.8% (short-term overextension)
• Institutional buying present but near resistance

🔍 Earnings Date Check

Earnings on November 4, 2025 — this trade expires September 19, well before earnings, so no earnings volatility risk included.

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order to open at $0.80 credit (midpoint between bid/ask)
• Target: Close at $0.30 credit or better (50-60% profit)
• Stop: Close if SOFI breaks above $30 or rises sharply intraday
• Time Stop: Close position by September 18 end of day to avoid last-minute gamma risk

📅 Market Overview

The Fed is holding rates steady but signaling possible cuts ahead, creating uncertainty. SOFI benefits from lower rates long term but near term faces volatility around Fed decisions. The stock’s technicals show strength but RSI near 70 and price near 52-week highs suggest limited near-term upside. Elevated IV and heavy call buying create a favorable setup to sell premium with defined risk. Sector peers like AFRM and PYPL show mixed momentum, while geopolitical risks (Israel strikes on Iran) add to market caution. This trade fits the current regime of high volatility and potential short-term consolidation.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 28 Call intrinsic value: Max(0, 27.67 - 28) = $0 (OTM), trading at ~$1.35 ✅
• 30 Call intrinsic value: Max(0, 27.67 - 30) = $0 (OTM), trading at ~$0.55 ✅
• Put-Call Parity and spread pricing consistent with market quotes ✅

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Confidence Level: Moderate to High — The trade benefits from elevated IV, clear resistance strike, and short time to expiration reducing exposure. However, strong bullish sentiment and possible Fed-driven volatility overnight introduce some risk.

Risk Assessment: Limited risk of $1.20 per spread with max loss if SOFI rallies above $30 by expiration. The short time frame and defined risk make this a controlled speculative premium sale.

Let me know if you want a bullish or longer-term strategy instead.