$SBUX Options Intelligence

## SBUX Options Trade Recommendation for October 24, 2025

🎯 SELL SBUX NOV 21 95/90/85/80 IRON CONDOR

I recommend this iron condor because implied volatility is extremely elevated ahead of earnings, with the 5-day (Oct 31) expiry showing a Clean IV of 75.4% versus a baseline 90-day historical vol of 26.5%—a nearly 50% premium, signaling a strong sell premium opportunity[PRO ANALYSIS]. The expected daily move is ±$2.78 (3.24%), but the market is pricing in even larger swings due to the Oct 29 earnings event and CEO announcements. This setup is further supported by a high IV Rank (100%), elevated put/call volume ratio (0.65, bullish), and technical indicators showing neutral RSI (56) and price above the 20-day MA but below the 200-day MA, suggesting rangebound action with resistance at the 200MA (~$92.17) and support at recent lows (~$75.50)[PRO ANALYSIS, MARKET INTELLIGENCE].

Stock Price: $85.92

### Trade Structure

• Sell SBUX Nov 21 95 Call
• Buy SBUX Nov 21 100 Call (upper wing)
• Sell SBUX Nov 21 80 Put
• Buy SBUX Nov 21 75 Put (lower wing)

Expiration: November 21, 2025 (28 days to expiry, after Oct 29 earnings)

Entry:
Assume mid-market fills for illustrative purposes (always use limit orders in practice):
• Sell 95 Call: $1.30
• Buy 100 Call: $0.40
• Sell 80 Put: $1.25
• Buy 75 Put: $0.35

Net Credit: ($1.30 - $0.40) + ($1.25 - $0.35) = $1.80

### Trade Metrics

• Max Profit: $1.80 (per spread)
• Max Loss: $3.20 (per spread)
• Breakevens:
- Upside: $96.80 (95 + 1.80)
- Downside: $78.20 (80 - 1.80)
• Probability of Profit: ~70% (based on expected move and strike placement)
• Days to Expiration: 28
• Expected Move: ±$2.78 (3.24%) daily, but earnings could drive a larger single-day move

### Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

| Expiry | Market IV | Clean IV | Baseline Vol | Recommendation |
|-------------|-----------|----------|--------------|---------------------|
| Oct 31 | 75.4% | 27.5% | 26.5% | SELL (overpriced) |
| Nov 7 | 54.8% | 26.6% | 26.5% | Neutral |
| Nov 14 | 49.8% | 27.6% | 26.5% | Neutral |
| Nov 21 | 45.3% | 27.6% | 26.5% | Neutral |

The Oct 31 expiry is massively overpriced relative to baseline vol, but Nov 21 is only slightly above—still favorable for selling premium, but with less extreme edge. However, Nov 21 is the only post-earnings expiry with enough liquidity and time to manage the trade.
Calendar Spread Opportunity: The IV difference between Oct 31 and Nov 21 is extreme, but liquidity and event risk make a pure calendar less attractive than an iron condor here.

### Greeks & Volatility

• Net Delta: ~0 (market neutral)
• Theta: Positive (collects time decay)
• Vega: Negative (benefits from IV crush post-earnings)
• IV Rank: 100% (extremely high—ideal for selling premium)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.65 (bullish, but not extreme)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $90 (suggests pin risk near current price)

### Why This Trade

The term structure shows a clear sell premium opportunity, especially in the front month, but liquidity and earnings risk push us to the Nov 21 expiry. The iron condor profits if SBUX stays between $78.20 and $96.80 through expiration, a range that encompasses the expected move and analyst price targets (average $101.80, but recent misses and labor risks temper upside)[1][3]. Labor union strike authorization is a headline risk, but the stock has shown resilience to past labor news[9]. Technical indicators are neutral, with price above the 20-day MA but below the 200-day MA, and RSI at 56—no strong directional bias[PRO ANALYSIS]. Fundamentally, SBUX has a high P/E (36.8), modest growth, and mixed recent earnings, but the dividend (ex-date Nov 14) provides a mild floor[3].

### Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 45.3% (Nov 21) vs Historical: 26.5%
• IV Rank: 100% (Extreme—sell premium favored)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$2.78 (3.24%)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.65 (moderate bullish sentiment)
• Technical: RSI 56 (neutral), Price above 20MA by 2.9%, below 200MA by 7.1%
• Unusual Activity: None standout in Nov 21 strikes

### Earnings Date Check

Earnings on Oct 29, 2025. This trade uses Nov 21 expiry, which is after earnings—capturing the post-earnings move and IV crush.

### Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order at $1.80 net credit (mid-market)
• Target: Close at $0.90 (50% profit)
• Stop: Exit if SBUX breaks $97 or $78 (outside short strikes)
• Time Stop: Close 5 days before expiration if not yet profitable

### Market Overview

Current regime: The Fed has recently held rates steady, with a "higher for longer" stance, creating headwinds for consumer discretionary stocks like SBUX. Geopolitical risks are elevated but not directly impacting SBUX. Sector peers (MCD, CMG) are mixed, with no clear sector-wide catalyst. SBUX’s own catalysts are earnings, CEO event, and labor news—all event-driven, not macro. Technical levels: Support at $75.50 (52-week low), resistance at $92.17 (200-day MA). Fundamentals: Hig