$RTX Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL RTX NOV 21 180/185 CALL SPREAD

I recommend a bear call spread because the current term structure and volatility environment indicate that RTX options are fairly valued to slightly expensive near-term, with a high IV rank of 100%, favoring premium selling strategies. The stock price is $174.57, below the 20-day moving average (176.90), with a neutral RSI (53.38), and a bearish MACD signal, suggesting limited upside momentum in the short term. Additionally, the market maker max pain is at 185, close to the short call strike, reinforcing resistance near this level. With no upcoming earnings until January 27, 2026, the short-dated November 21 expiry is appropriate for premium collection without earnings risk.

Sell RTX Nov 21 180/185 Call Spread
Stock Price: $174.57 | Entry: Sell 180 Call at ~1.75, Buy 185 Call at ~0.85 = Net Credit ~0.90

📊 Trade Metrics

• Net Credit: $0.90 per share ($90 per spread)
• Max Risk: $4.10 per share ($410 per spread)
• Max Profit: $0.90 (credit received)
• Breakeven at Expiry: 180 + 0.90 = $180.90
• Days to Expiration: 4 days (Nov 21)
• Win Probability: High (stock below short strike, delta of 180 call ~0.198)

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Volatility: 24.1%
• Near-term IV (Nov 21): ~26.8% (slightly above baseline, suggesting fair to slightly rich premium)
• IV Rank: 100% (very high, favors selling premium)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$3.17 (1.82%) supports limited upside beyond 180-185 range
• Market Maker Max Pain: 185 (aligns with short call strike)
• No earnings until 2026-01-27, so no earnings premium in this expiry

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Net Delta: Slightly bearish (short call delta ~0.198)
• Theta: Positive for seller (~+0.161 per day on short call leg)
• Vega: Negative (benefits from IV contraction)
• Current IV: 28.8% (high) vs Historical 11.8% (significantly elevated)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure shows near-term IV at 26.8%, slightly above the 24.1% baseline, with an IV rank at 100%, indicating options are expensive and premium selling is optimal. RTX price is below the 20-day MA, and technicals (RSI neutral, MACD bearish) do not support a strong rally above 180 in the next 4 days. The max pain point at 185 further supports resistance near the short call strike. Selling the 180/185 call spread captures premium while limiting risk if there is any short-term upside. The expected daily move of ±$3.17 aligns well with the breakeven of $180.90, making this a defined-risk, high-probability trade.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV of 28.8% vs historical 11.8% shows significant premium to sell
• IV skew favors calls being pricier, ideal for call spread selling
• Put/Call volume ratio 0.16 very bullish, but price action technicals and resistance at 180-185 suggest limited near-term upside
• Dividend upcoming Nov 21 ($0.68), which may add slight upward pressure but unlikely to push above 180 imminently
• Sector and fundamentals stable, no immediate catalysts to push price higher in next 4 days

🔍 Earnings Date Check

• Next RTX earnings: 2026-01-27
• Recommended expiration: 2025-11-21 (4 days away), safely before earnings to avoid volatility shocks

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order to sell the 180 call at $1.75 and buy the 185 call at $0.85 for net credit $0.90
• Target: Close position at 50-70% of max profit ($0.45-$0.63) if RTX stays below $180
• Stop: Buy back if RTX moves above $182 to limit losses
• Time Stop: Close by end of day Nov 20 to avoid weekend risk

📅 Market Overview

The broader market is cautious with tech earnings looming but RTX is in the Industrials/Aerospace sector, which has shown strong execution and backlog momentum but valuation is stretched versus peers. Technicals show resistance near 180-185, and the current price below the 20-day MA signals short-term weakness. The upcoming dividend on Nov 21 may cause slight upward pressure, but not enough to breach 185 resistance imminently. The high IV rank and elevated volatility create an ideal environment for defined-risk premium selling strategies like this call spread.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 180 Call intrinsic value: max(0, 174.57-180) = $0 (OTM), premium ~1.75 ✅
• 185 Call intrinsic value: 0 (OTM), premium ~0.85 ✅
• Spread intrinsic value: 0, net credit 0.90 > 0 ✅
• Put-Call parity and pricing logic hold for these strikes and expiry ✅

Confidence Level: Moderate to High — The trade aligns with technical resistance, elevated IV, and term structure suggesting premium selling. The short 4-day expiry reduces exposure to unexpected events. Risk is defined and manageable with a tight stop.

Risk Assessment: Max loss is $4.10 per spread if RTX rallies above 185 by expiry. The trade is bearish-neutral, suitable for traders expecting limited near-term upside or slight pullback. The short time frame limits exposure but also requires active management.

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If you want, I can also suggest calendar spreads or bullish strategies for longer expirations after the January earnings date.