$RIVN Options Intelligence

🎯 BUY RIVN JAN 16 15/12.5 PUT SPREAD

I recommend a bear put spread using the January 16, 2026 expiration strikes 15 (sell) and 12.5 (buy) because the term structure shows options are underpriced relative to historical volatility, and recent insider and institutional selling pressure suggests near-term downside risk. The 30-day Clean IV (~59-62%) is below the baseline 90-day historical volatility of 68.2%, indicating a buying opportunity in puts. Also, recent market intelligence highlights significant CEO and institutional selling on November 17, 2025, pushing the stock down to $14.96, which is just below technical resistance levels around $15.11 and near Fibonacci resistance at $14.76. The RSI near 52 is neutral but the MACD is bullish, suggesting mixed momentum, so a defined-risk bearish spread limits downside risk while capturing potential further weakness.

Buy RIVN Jan 16 15/12.5 Put Spread
Stock Price: $14.96 | Entry: Approx. $1.00 debit (estimated from mid prices, verify bid/ask before entry)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Max Risk: $100 per contract (debit paid)
• Max Reward: $250 per contract (difference between strikes $2.50 minus debit $1.00)
• Breakeven at Expiry: $14.00 (15 strike - $1.00 debit)
• Win if RIVN < $14.00 at expiry
• Days to Expiration: 61 (Jan 16, 2026)
• Delta: Put 15 strike delta ~ -0.44, Put 12.5 strike delta ~ -0.21 (net bear bias)

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Volatility: 68.2%
• 30-day Clean IV: ~59-62% (below baseline, BUY signal for options premium)
• IV Rank: 40% (below average, supports buying volatility)
• Earnings Date: 2026-02-19 (trade expires well before earnings, avoiding earnings volatility)
• Calendar Opportunity: Yes, longer dated options have slightly lower IV, but focus on Jan 16 expiry for defined risk

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Net Delta: Bearish (put spread)
• Theta: Negative but limited due to spread structure (~ -0.01 per day)
• Vega: Positive (benefits from IV increase)
• Current IV: 70-71.5% (slightly elevated but still below historical norm)
• Put/Call Ratio: Near 1, balanced sentiment but recent insider selling suggests bearish tilt

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure reveals an opportunity as the 30-day Clean IV is about 6-9% below the 90-day historical volatility baseline of 68.2%, indicating options are underpriced and a good entry point for buying puts. Market intelligence shows CEO Robert Scaringe sold 52,350 shares at $16.60 and KBC Group NV sold nearly 700K shares, creating selling pressure that pushed the stock below $15.00 today. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan buying 97K shares offers some support but is outweighed by the selling. Technical levels show resistance near $15.11 and Fibonacci resistance at $14.76, with support around $13.75. The stock sits just above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages but below $15, suggesting a cautious bearish bias. The expected daily move is ±$0.67 (~4.5%), so the 15/12.5 put spread aligns well with a moderate downside scenario. This defined-risk spread limits maximum loss to the debit paid while allowing for meaningful profit if the stock declines below $14.00 by January expiration.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 71.5% vs Historical: 74.5% (slightly below historical)
• IV Rank: 40% (favors buying options)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$0.67 (4.5%)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.98 (neutral)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $15 (near current price)
• Technical: RSI 51.9 (neutral), MACD bullish but price pressured by insider selling
• Fundamentals: EPS negative, revenue $1.56B, net loss $1.17B, profit margin -74.8% (fundamentals remain weak)

🔍 Earnings Date Check

Earnings on 2026-02-19, recommended Jan 16, 2026 expiration is well before earnings, so this trade avoids earnings volatility risk.

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order near $1.00 debit (adjust based on bid/ask)
• Target: Close at $1.75-$2.00 (75-100% profit)
• Stop: Exit if RIVN rises above $16.00, invalidating bearish thesis
• Time Stop: Close 1 week before expiration to avoid time decay risk

📅 Economic Events: Fed Rate Decision on 2025-12-10 and CPI on 2025-12-10 may cause market volatility; monitor closely.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• Put 15 strike intrinsic value: max(0, 15 - 14.96) = $0.04 (OTM)
• Put 12.5 strike intrinsic value: max(0, 12.5 - 14.96) = $0 (OTM)
• Spread intrinsic value: $0 (both OTM)
• Debit spread cost > intrinsic value, pricing valid
• Put-Call parity holds for strikes around $15

🔍 Market Overview

The market is currently digesting significant insider and institutional selling in RIVN, causing a near 1% drop today to $14.96. Analyst sentiment remains cautiously bullish with Stifel raising price targets to $17 and Tigress Financial to $25, but these are longer-term views. Technically, RIVN is supported near $13.75 but faces resistance near $15.11 and $14.76 (Fibonacci). The stock is above its 200-day MA ($13.29), which is bullish long-term, but the near-term pressure and negative fundamentals (net losses) suggest caution. Sector peers like TSLA and LCID show mixed performance. The current economic backdrop includes an upcoming Fed decision and inflation data, which could increase volatility. This trade balances these factors by defining risk and targeting a moderate downside move.

Confidence Level: Moderate. The trade aligns with term structure and recent market intelligence showing selling pressure, but technical and fundamental mixed signals warrant defined-risk rather than outright directional bets.

Risk Assessment: Limited risk to debit paid ($1.00 per contract). Max loss if RIVN stays above $15 at expiration. Max gai