$RBLX Options Intelligence

🎯 BUY RBLX DEC 19 110/115 CALL SPREAD

I recommend this trade because the term structure shows options are underpriced relative to historical volatility, and recent insider selling has created a short-term bearish overreaction, while analyst ratings remain positive and the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average.

Buy RBLX Dec 19 110/115 Call Spread
Stock Price: $104.63
Entry: $1.20 debit (mid of $1.15/$1.25)
Expiration: 2025-12-19

📊 Trade Metrics

• Risk: $120 per spread
• Reward: $380 per spread (317% return)
• Breakeven: $111.20
• Max Loss: $120 if RBLX < $110 at expiry
• Max Profit: $380 if RBLX > $115 at expiry
• Win Rate: 38% (based on delta)
• Days to Expiration: 37

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Vol: 54.3%
• 37-day Clean IV: 47.2% (7.1% below baseline = BUY signal)
• Market IV: 49.8%
• Earnings Multiplier: 2.92x (high expected move)
• Calendar Opportunity: Yes – 37d vs 72d shows 10.9% IV differential
• Recommendation: BUY near-term, or execute calendar spread

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Net Delta: +0.31 (bullish)
• Theta: $2.50/day (time decay)
• Vega: +$12 (benefits from IV increase)
• Current IV: 49.8% (elevated vs 26.4% historical)
• IV Rank: 100% (High – favors selling premium)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.28 (very bullish sentiment)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure reveals a compelling opportunity: 37-day Clean IV at 47.2% sits 7.1% below the 54.3% baseline volatility, indicating options are underpriced after stripping out the earnings event. This creates a statistical edge for buying premium. According to today's market intelligence, "Roblox insider Matthew Kaufman sold 6,000 shares on November 6 at $101.48, and the Baszucki Family Foundation intends to sell 46,062 shares on Nov 11 with a total market value of $4.85 million." These insider sales have contributed to recent downward pressure, but the stock remains above its 200-day MA at $96.54 and has a "Moderate Buy" average analyst rating. The current IV of 49.8% is above historical average of 26.4%, creating expensive options. RSI at 32.89 shows neutral conditions, suggesting potential for mean reversion. This call spread captures potential upside while limiting risk. The expected daily move of ±$3.79 supports this strike selection.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 49.8% vs Historical: 26.4%
• IV Rank: 100% (High – favors selling premium)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$3.79 (3.62%)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.28 (very bullish sentiment)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $115
• Technical: RSI 32.89 (neutral), Price above 200MA by 8.4%
• Unusual Activity: High volume in 115 strikes

🔍 Earnings Date Check

Earnings on 2026-02-05, recommending 2025-12-19 expiry which is BEFORE earnings. This trade is designed to capture short-term mean reversion, not the earnings move.

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order at $1.20 (mid of $1.15/$1.25)
• Target: Close at $2.00 (67% profit)
• Stop: Exit if RBLX breaks below $102
• Time Stop: Close 2 days before expiration

📅 Economic Events: Consumer Price Index 2025-11-13, Non-Farm Payrolls 2025-12-05, Fed Rate Decision 2025-12-10

⚠️ Options Expiration Validation
• Recommended expiration: 2025-12-19
• Earnings date: 2026-02-05
• Validation: ✅ Expires BEFORE earnings (captures short-term move, not earnings)

🔍 Market Overview

The Fed's recent stance on potential rate cuts combined with elevated rates creates a challenging environment for growth stocks. RBLX's RSI at 32.89 indicates neutral conditions, while the stock trades 8.4% above its 200-day MA at $96.54. Fundamentals show EPS of $-1.42 with -21.8% profit margin. No dividends. Sector peers mixed: U -1.5%, META -2.1%, suggesting tech sector consolidation. Support at $102, resistance at $115. The recent insider selling adds volatility risk, making defined-risk spreads preferable to outright positions.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 110 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), trading at $2.40 ✅
• 115 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), trading at $1.20 ✅
• Put-Call Parity Check: C - P = S - K holds within tolerance ✅
• Spread pricing verified: Debit spread with proper bid/ask alignment ✅

Confidence Level: 75%
Risk Assessment: Moderate – defined risk, limited upside, sensitive to earnings and macro events