$PLTR Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL PLTR NOV 14 200/210 CALL SPREAD

I recommend this credit spread because the term structure reveals a critical pricing inefficiency: the 2-day Clean IV of 52.2% sits 3% ABOVE the 90-day baseline volatility of 49.9%, signaling overpriced near-term options. Combined with PLTR's RSI at 50.92 (neutral) and the stock trading flat to its 20-day MA despite strong Q3 earnings, this setup captures elevated premium with defined risk. The market has priced in excessive volatility following yesterday's earnings beat ($0.21 EPS vs $0.17 expected, $1.18B revenue vs $1.09B expected), but insider selling of 1.57M shares over 90 days and mixed analyst sentiment (BofA $215 target vs Goldman Sachs $141) suggest caution.

Sell PLTR Nov 14 200/210 Call Spread
Stock Price: $187.19 | Entry: $0.22 credit

📊 Trade Metrics

• Risk: $778 (width of spread minus credit received) | Reward: $22 credit
• Breakeven: $210.22
• Max Loss: $778 if PLTR > $210 at expiry
• Max Profit: $22 if PLTR < $200 at expiry
• Win Rate: 94% (based on delta of short 200 call: 0.059)
• Days to Expiration: 2

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Vol: 49.9%
• 2-day Clean IV: 52.2% (3% ABOVE baseline = SELL signal)
• Market IV: 60.5% (elevated post-earnings)
• Current IV Rank: 100% (extremely high - premium collection favored)
• Calendar Opportunity: Yes - 2d IV (52.2%) vs 7d IV (51.5%) shows compression opportunity
• Primary Signal: SELL near-term premium before decay accelerates

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Net Delta: -0.059 (highly directional neutral)
• Theta: +$0.221/day (rapid time decay benefits seller)
• Vega: -$0.137 (benefits from IV contraction)
• Current IV: 60.5% vs Historical: 38.9%
• IV Rank: 100% (maximum - sell premium strategies heavily favored)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.09 (extremely bullish - heavy call buying indicates overbought)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure is screaming SELL. Post-earnings volatility has inflated the 2-day Clean IV to 52.2%, sitting 3% above the 49.9% baseline—a statistical edge for premium sellers. The market's IV Rank at 100% indicates we're at the extreme high end of the volatility range. More critically, the Put/Call Volume Ratio of 0.09 reveals extreme call buying (9 calls for every 1 put traded), a classic sign of retail euphoria that often precedes pullbacks. Yesterday's earnings beat ($0.21 EPS, 52% YoY government sales growth) sparked the rally, but insider Shyam Sankar's sale of 30,000 shares at $159.55 (now trading at $187.19) signals insiders are taking profits. RSI at 50.92 is perfectly neutral—no overbought condition to fuel further upside. The stock is only 0.02% above its 20-day MA, indicating consolidation. This 2-day expiration captures peak theta decay while the stock consolidates before the Consumer Price Index report tomorrow (Nov 13), which could trigger volatility.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 60.5% vs Historical: 38.9% (55% premium to normal)
• IV Rank: 100% (extreme - sell premium strategies heavily favored)
• Expected Daily Move: ±6.84 (3.66%)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.09 (extremely bullish - overbought signal)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $200 (exactly your short strike!)
• Technical: RSI 50.92 (neutral), Price 0.02% above 20MA (consolidating)
• Insider Activity: 1.57M shares sold over 90 days ($239M value)

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Sell at $0.22 credit (market mid-price)
• Target: Close at $0.05 (77% profit on credit received)
• Stop: Exit if PLTR closes above $205 (shows breakout)
• Time Stop: Close 1 day before expiration (Nov 13) to avoid pin risk

📅 Economic Events & Earnings Validation

• Earnings: Feb 2, 2026 (82 days away) ✅ Your Nov 14 expiration is WELL BEFORE earnings, making this a pure volatility play, not an earnings capture
• Consumer Price Index: Nov 13 (TOMORROW) - Could create intraday volatility spikes
• Fed Rate Decision: Dec 10 (28 days)
• Non-Farm Payrolls: Dec 5 (23 days)

🔍 Market Overview

PLTR trades in a consolidation zone after yesterday's 5.5% earnings-driven rally. The broader tech sector (NVDA, MSFT, AMZN) shows mixed signals—mega-caps are stabilizing but growth stocks face valuation pressure. The Fed's current stance remains restrictive with rates held steady, creating headwinds for unprofitable growth. PLTR's fundamentals are strong (28.2% profit margin, $1.10B net income on $3.90B revenue), but the 311% YTD return has created stretched valuations. Support sits at $179.80 (50-day MA), resistance at $191.87 (today's high). The stock's position 5.4% above its 200-day MA ($137.02) confirms the long-term uptrend remains intact, but near-term consolidation is likely.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 200 Call