$PFE Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL PFE NOV 21 24/23 PUT SPREAD

I recommend a bull put credit spread because the term structure indicates near-term options are fairly valued relative to baseline volatility, with an IV rank at 100%, favoring premium selling. Pfizer’s stock price is $25.34, above the 200-day MA ($24.60), showing technical support. The recent $10B Metsera acquisition is a bullish fundamental catalyst, while institutional buying by Geode Capital confirms positive sentiment. The stock’s RSI (57.36) is neutral, supporting a moderately bullish stance. Selling premium with a put spread below the current price aligns with limited downside risk and collecting premium in a high IV environment.

Sell PFE Nov 21 24 Put, Buy PFE Nov 21 23 Put
Stock Price: $25.34 | Entry Credit: approx. $0.30 (mid of $0.28/$0.32)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Max Risk: $0.70 per spread (difference between strikes $1.00 - credit received $0.30)
• Max Reward: $0.30 per spread
• Breakeven at Expiry: $23.70 (strike 24 put sold minus credit $0.30)
• Probability of Profit: High (stock well above short put strike)
• Days to Expiration: 9 (Nov 21)
• Theta: Positive (time decay benefits seller)
• Vega: Negative (benefits from IV contraction)

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Vol: 28.0%
• 7-day (Nov 21) Clean IV: ~32.1% (slightly above baseline, premium is fair)
• IV Rank: 100% (high, favors selling premium)
• Earnings Date: Feb 3, 2026 (well after expiration, no earnings risk)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $25 (near current price)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$0.51 (2%)

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Delta short put: ~-0.40 (moderate downside risk)
• Positive Theta: benefits from time decay over next 9 days
• Vega: slightly negative, benefits if IV contracts post-deal announcement

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure shows near-term IV slightly above baseline but not excessively high, creating a good environment to sell premium. Pfizer’s recent $10B Metsera acquisition is a strong bullish fundamental catalyst, supporting the stock near $25.34, above key moving averages. Institutional buying by Geode Capital also signals confidence. The stock’s RSI is neutral, indicating no immediate overbought risk. Selling the 24/23 put spread captures premium with limited risk below strong support levels (~$24.16) and a breakeven at $23.70, well below current price. The trade benefits from time decay and potential IV contraction as the market digests the acquisition news.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 31.8% vs baseline 28% (fairly priced)
• IV Rank: 100% (premium selling favored)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.15 (very bullish skew)
• Technical Support: 200-day MA at $24.60, volume support at $24.16
• Dividend: $0.43 quarterly, ex-dividend Nov 7 (already passed)
• No earnings before expiration (Feb 3 next earnings) reduces volatility risk

🔍 Earnings Date Check

Earnings on Feb 3, 2026; recommended expiration Nov 21, 2025, is well before earnings, avoiding earnings volatility risk.

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order to sell spread at $0.30 credit (between $0.28/$0.32 bid-ask)
• Target: Buy back spread at $0.10 or better for ~66% profit
• Stop: Close if PFE falls below $23.70 (breakeven) or breaks key support at $24.16
• Time Stop: Close 1-2 days before expiration to avoid last-minute gamma risk

📅 Economic Events

• CPI Nov 13 (next day) could impact broad market volatility, but Pfizer’s sector is defensive healthcare, less sensitive to macro shocks.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 24 Put intrinsic value: max(0, 24 - 25.34) = 0 (OTM)
• 23 Put intrinsic value: 0 (OTM)
• Spread max loss $1.00 - credit $0.30 = $0.70, consistent with pricing
• Put-call parity and spread pricing checks passed

🔍 Market Overview

Pfizer is trading at $25.34, supported by the 200-day MA at $24.60 and recent institutional buying. The $10B Metsera acquisition adds a strong growth catalyst in obesity/metabolic drugs, diversifying Pfizer’s pipeline. The stock shows neutral momentum (RSI 57.36) and trades slightly above short and long-term moving averages, indicating technical stability. The healthcare sector is relatively defensive amid mixed market conditions. High IV rank (100%) and a strong put-call skew (0.15) favor selling premium, especially on downside protection spreads. The next earnings event is distant, reducing risk of sudden volatility spikes.

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Confidence Level: Moderate-High
Risk Assessment: Limited risk defined by spread width ($0.70 max loss per contract), high probability of profit given technical and fundamental backdrop, with the trade designed to benefit from time decay and stable-to-bullish price action. The main risk is a sharp downside move below $23.70, which is unlikely given current support and positive news.

This trade aligns well with current market conditions, term structure, and fundamental catalysts for Pfizer on November 12, 2025, with a clear risk/reward profile.