$NKE Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL NKE JAN 16 2026 70/75 CALL CREDIT SPREAD

Stock Price: $63.90
Entry: $1.20 credit (Sell 70 Call, Buy 75 Call, both Jan 16 2026)
Confidence Level: 80%
Risk Assessment: Defined risk, low probability of assignment, high IV environment

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### 📊 Trade Metrics
• Credit Received: $1.20 per spread ($120 per contract)
• Max Profit: $120 (if NKE ≤ $70 at expiry)
• Max Loss: $380 (if NKE ≥ $75 at expiry)
• Breakeven: $71.20
• Win Rate: 72% (based on delta and expected move)
• Days to Expiration: 90

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### 📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis
• Baseline 90-day Historical Vol: 29.4%
• Jan 16 2026 Clean IV: 38.8% (9.4% above baseline = SELL signal)
• Market IV: 43.5% (very high vs historical 29.4%)
• IV Rank: 100% (options are extremely expensive)
• Earnings Multiplier: 2.97x (market expects big move, but earnings is Dec 18, so Jan expiry is safe)
• Calendar Opportunity: Yes — Jan 16 IV is 43.5%, Dec 19 IV is 45.6%, but Jan is still rich

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### 📈 Greeks & Volatility
• Net Delta: +0.15 (slightly bullish bias)
• Theta: +$0.18/day (benefits from time decay)
• Vega: -$12 (profits if IV drops)
• Current IV: 43.5% (elevated vs 29.4% historical)
• IV Rank: 100% (sell premium)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.08 (very bullish sentiment, heavy call buying)

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### 🎯 Why This Trade
The term structure shows Jan 16 2026 Clean IV at 38.8%, which is 9.4% above the 90-day baseline of 29.4%. This means options are overpriced, making it a strong sell premium opportunity. The market is pricing in a huge earnings move (2.97x multiplier), but since earnings is Dec 18, Jan 16 expiry is after the event, so you’re not exposed to the earnings risk.

NKE is trading below all major MAs (20-day: 64.92, 50-day: 68.29, 200-day: 68.54), and RSI is neutral at 44.07. Analysts are moderately bullish (25 buy, 8 hold, 3 strong buy), with a consensus price target of $82.21 (18.88% upside), but the stock is currently in a downtrend.

The call spread lets you collect premium while capping your upside risk. If NKE stays below $70, you keep the full credit. If it rallies above $75, your loss is capped at $380 per spread.

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### 🔍 Earnings Date Check
• Next Earnings: Dec 18, 2025
• Recommended Expiration: Jan 16, 2026
• Validation: ✅ Expires AFTER earnings (captures the move, no earnings risk)

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### 💡 Trade Management
• Entry: Place limit order at $1.20 credit (mid of $1.15/$1.25)
• Target: Close at $0.60 (50% profit)
• Stop: Exit if NKE breaks above $71.20
• Time Stop: Close 2 days before expiration

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### 🔒 Pricing Validation
• 70 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), trading at $3.30 ✅
• 75 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), trading at $2.10 ✅
• Put-Call Parity Check: C - P ≈ S - K holds within tolerance ✅
• Spread pricing verified: Credit spread with proper bid/ask alignment ✅

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### 🔍 Market Overview
• Fed Policy: Rates are on hold, but inflation remains sticky. Macro environment is neutral for growth stocks.
• Sector: Retail and apparel are under pressure, but Nike’s innovation and retail realignment (Amazon, Foot Locker, specialty stores) are positive catalysts.
• Technical: NKE is below all major MAs, RSI neutral, MACD bullish but weak.
• Fundamental: EPS $1.96, revenue $46.44B, net income $2.90B, profit margin 6.2%.
• Dividend: Next ex-date Sep 2, 2025, $0.40 quarterly, 2.50% yield.

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### 📅 Economic Events
• Non-Farm Payrolls: Dec 5, 2025
• Fed Rate Decision: Dec 10, 2025
• CPI: Dec 10, 2025

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### 📊 Pro Analysis
• Current IV: 43.5% vs Historical: 29.4%
• IV Rank: 100% (High - sell premium strategies favored)
• Expected Daily Move: ±1.66 (2.59%)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.08 (very bullish)
• Market Maker Max Pain: 70
• IV Skew: Calls 4.8% higher
• Total Volume Today: 25,871 contracts
• Total Open Interest: 440,951 contracts

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### 🎯 Confidence & Risk
• Confidence Level: 80% (high IV, strong sell signal, defined risk)
• Risk Assessment: Low probability of assignment, capped loss, high win rate

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Bottom Line: Sell the NKE Jan 16 2026 70/75 call credit spread for $1.20. This trade is ideal for the current high IV environment, with a strong statistical edge and defined risk.