$NFLX Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL NFLX NOV 14 1150/1160 BEAR CALL SPREAD

I recommend a bear call spread expiring November 14, 2025, with strikes 1150/1160 because the current term structure and technicals suggest limited near-term upside and elevated implied volatility (IV) favoring premium selling. NFLX is trading at $1130.06, below key resistance levels around $1206 and $1248, and short-term momentum indicators are mixed to slightly bearish. The 2-day (Nov 14) options show slightly elevated IV (~31.1%) but lower than the historical baseline (~29.8%), indicating a reasonable premium to sell. The stock recently gained but faces resistance and sell signals from moving averages and MACD, suggesting a cautious outlook. The upcoming 10-for-1 stock split on Nov 17 may add volatility, but this spread captures premium decay before the split.

Sell NFLX Nov 14 1150 Call, Buy NFLX Nov 14 1160 Call
Stock Price: $1130.06 | Entry: Approximately $2.00 credit (estimate based on typical bid/ask spreads near these strikes)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Max Profit: ~$200 per spread (net credit) if NFLX stays below $1150 at expiration
• Max Loss: $800 per spread if NFLX rises above $1160 at expiration
• Breakeven: $1152 (1150 + $2 credit)
• Win Probability: Moderate to high, given resistance and short-term negative signals
• Days to Expiration: 2 (very short-term trade)

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Vol: ~29.8%
• 2-day Clean IV: ~31.1% (slightly above baseline, favoring selling premium)
• IV Rank: High (100%), indicating options are relatively expensive
• Expected Daily Move: ±$28.25 (2.5%) supports selecting strikes just above current price to collect premium
• Calendar Opportunity: Limited due to short time frame before stock split
• Earnings: Next earnings on Jan 20, 2026, so no earnings risk in this short-term trade

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Delta short call (1150): ~0.30 (bearish neutral)
• Theta: Positive (time decay works in favor of seller)
• Vega: Negative (benefits if IV contracts)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure shows a slight premium in near-term IV, creating an opportunity to sell premium into resistance. NFLX has sell signals from technical indicators (MACD and moving averages) and resistance at $1206 and $1248, making a short call spread just above current price a conservative way to profit from limited upside. The upcoming 10-for-1 stock split on Nov 17 could increase volatility but the trade closes before that, capturing premium decay with defined risk. Volume and volatility patterns suggest cautious short-term sentiment. The expected daily move (~$28) aligns with strike selection slightly above current price ($1130), providing a reasonable buffer.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV (31.1%) slightly above baseline (29.8%), favoring selling premium
• RSI near neutral (~47), no strong bullish momentum
• Price below 50-day MA ($1178.09) and 200-day MA ($1129.02) - mixed but resistance intact
• Market sentiment cautious with recent sell signals from moving averages
• No earnings risk with expiration before Jan 20, 2026

🔍 Earnings Date Check

• Earnings: Jan 20, 2026
• Expiration: Nov 14, 2025 (before earnings) — no earnings risk for this trade

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order to SELL Nov 14 1150 Call and BUY Nov 14 1160 Call for approx. $2.00 credit
• Target: Close position at 50-70% of max profit (~$100-$140) as time decay accelerates
• Stop: Consider closing if NFLX rises above $1155 before expiration to limit loss
• Time Stop: Close 1 day before expiration to avoid last-minute gamma risk

📅 Economic Events

• CPI report on Nov 13 (next day) may impact market volatility, monitor closely

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 1150 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM)
• 1160 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM)
• Spread max loss = $10 - $2 = $8 (or $800 per contract)
• Spread max profit = $2 credit ($200 per contract)
• Put-call parity and bid/ask spreads consistent with trade viability

🔍 Market Overview

The market is currently neutral to slightly bearish on NFLX with technical resistance at $1206 and $1248, and sell signals from moving averages and MACD. NFLX trades at $1130.06, just above the 200-day MA ($1129.02), indicating a key support level. The upcoming 10-for-1 stock split on Nov 17 may create volatility but the short-term November 14 expiration limits exposure. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Nov 13 may cause broader market fluctuations. The tech sector is experiencing some turbulence, but NFLX fundamentals remain solid with recent revenue growth and expanding margins. Overall, this defined-risk credit spread fits the current cautious sentiment and elevated IV environment.

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Confidence Level: Moderate to High — The trade aligns with technical resistance and slightly elevated IV favoring premium selling. The short time frame limits exposure to unexpected events but requires monitoring around CPI data.

Risk Assessment: Defined risk of $800 per spread with max profit of $200. Risk/reward is 1:4, suitable for traders comfortable with short-term bearish-neutral bias and willing to manage risk actively.