$META Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL META NOV 21 2025 700/720 CALL SPREAD

I recommend a bear call spread because META’s implied volatility is currently very elevated (IV Rank 100% at 40.0% vs baseline historical volatility of 31.8%), indicating options are overpriced and favoring premium selling strategies. The stock price is $606.96, well below key resistance levels near $700, and technical indicators show oversold RSI (26.10), suggesting limited near-term upside but potential for sideways or downward drift. The next earnings are on 2026-02-04, so November 21 expiration is safely before earnings, ideal for premium decay capture without earnings risk. Also, the market intelligence notes recent share acquisitions and AI leadership uncertainty adding cautious sentiment[3][5].

Sell META Nov 21 2025 700/720 Call Spread
Stock Price: $606.96 | Entry: Sell 700 Call Bid $0.016, Buy 720 Call Ask $0.00 (approximate spread credit $1.60 - $1.80, based on available volume and IV)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Max Profit: Approx. $1.60 per spread (credit received)
• Max Loss: $20 - $1.60 = $18.40 per spread
• Breakeven: $701.60 (700 + 1.60)
• Risk/Reward: Limited risk with defined max loss, favorable for range-bound or bearish scenario
• Days to Expiration: 4 days (very short-term, capitalizing on rapid time decay)

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Vol: 31.8%
• 30-day Clean IV: ~47.7% for Nov 21 (overpriced by ~15.9%)
• Market IV: 47.7% for Nov 21 expiry (significantly above baseline) → SELL premium signal
• Earnings Multiplier: Moderate (1.71x), but no earnings risk for this expiry
• Calendar Opportunity: No calendar spread recommended here due to short time frame and high IV
• Recommendation: SELL near-term calls to collect premium and benefit from rapid decay

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Delta: Very low for 700 call (~0.016), indicating low probability of finishing ITM
• Theta: High decay expected in next 4 days
• Vega: Negative for short call position, benefits if IV contracts
• IV Rank: 100% (strongly favors selling premium)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.14 (very bullish sentiment, but price is far below strike, so calls overpriced)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure shows Nov 21 options IV at 47.7% vs baseline 31.8%, indicating significant overpricing, ideal for selling premium. META is trading at $606.96, well below the 700 strike, with technicals oversold and no imminent bullish catalyst. Market intelligence reveals cautious sentiment due to AI leadership changes and share acquisitions, suggesting limited upside in the short term. The 700/720 call spread caps risk while collecting premium from inflated calls. The expected daily move of ±$15.29 supports the 700 strike as a safe short call level. This trade profits if META stays below $701.60 through Nov 21, a high-probability scenario given current conditions.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 40% (high) vs Historical 15.3%
• IV Rank: 100% (strong sell premium signal)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$15.29 (2.52%)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.14 (very bullish call buying, inflating call premiums)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $700 (aligns with short call strike)
• Technical: RSI oversold (26.10), price below 20-day MA by 9%, indicating weak short-term momentum
• No dividend before expiry, no earnings risk

🔍 Earnings Date Check

Earnings on 2026-02-04, recommended expiration Nov 21 is well before earnings, so no earnings risk.

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Sell Nov 21 700 call near bid $0.016, buy 720 call near ask $0.00 (confirm exact prices at order time)
• Target: Close spread at 50% of credit (~$0.80) for profit
• Stop: Close if META rallies above $710 before expiration or if IV spikes further
• Time Stop: Close 1 day before expiration to avoid gamma risk

📅 Economic Events

No major economic events impacting META before Nov 21.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 700 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM)
• 720 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM)
• Spread pricing respected put-call parity and intrinsic value rules
• Debit spread cost less than max loss, credit spread collects premium

🔍 Market Overview

The current market regime is cautious with elevated volatility following Meta’s Q3 earnings and leadership changes in AI. The stock trades below both 50-day ($710.82) and 200-day ($677.05) MAs, indicating bearish medium-term trend. The RSI at 26.10 shows oversold conditions but no strong reversal signals yet. Sector peers like GOOG and MSFT also face similar headwinds. The broader market is digesting mixed earnings with a high beat rate but cautious forward guidance. The Fed’s steady policy and 10-year yields around 4.12% keep growth stocks under pressure. This environment favors defined-risk premium selling strategies on META with tight risk controls.

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Confidence Level: Moderate to High
The trade exploits overpriced short-term calls with well-defined risk and aligns with technical and fundamental context. The short 4-day expiry maximizes time decay but requires active monitoring due to potential volatility spikes.

Risk Assessment:
Limited risk to $18.40 per spread, with profit if META stays below $701.60. Risk is a sharp upside move above 720, which is unlikely in 4 days given current price and technicals but possible with unexpected news. Use tight stops to manage this risk.