$LCID Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL LCID 2025-12-19 12 PUT, BUY LCID 2025-12-19 11 PUT (Bull Put Spread)

I recommend a bull put spread on Lucid Group (LCID) with the December 19, 2025 expiration, selling the 12 strike put and buying the 11 strike put. This trade aligns with the current market conditions where implied volatility remains elevated relative to historical levels, favoring premium selling, and the stock price is trading at $14.12, comfortably above the 12 strike, providing a good margin of safety.

Trade Details:
• Stock Price: $14.12
• Sell 1 LCID Dec 19 12 Put
• Buy 1 LCID Dec 19 11 Put
• Estimated Net Credit: Approximately $0.50 (based on typical bid/ask spreads for similar strikes and current IV)
• Max Risk: $0.50 (difference between strikes $1.00 minus credit received)
• Max Reward: $0.50 (net credit collected)
• Breakeven at Expiration: $11.50 (strike 12 minus credit 0.50)
• Days to Expiration: 14 days

📊 Trade Metrics

• Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1 (limited risk, limited reward)
• Win Probability: High, given the stock is trading well above the short strike and technical indicators are neutral (RSI 44.55)
• Time Decay: Positive, since you are a net seller of premium
• Implied Volatility Rank: 100% (very high), favoring premium selling strategies

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Historical Volatility: 60.5%
• Current Clean IV for Dec 19: ~70% (overpriced relative to baseline)
• IV Rank: 100% (strong signal to sell premium)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$1.08 (~7.6%), so the 12 strike is about 15% out of the money, providing a cushion
• Earnings Date: February 24, 2026 (well after this expiration, so no earnings volatility risk)

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Delta of short 12 put: Approximately -0.25 to -0.30 (out of the money)
• Positive Theta: Collects time decay daily
• Vega: Benefits if IV decreases post-entry

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure shows that options are overpriced with a clean IV well above baseline volatility, making premium selling favorable. LCID’s current price of $14.12 is above the 12 strike, and the stock has recently shown some resilience with no immediate negative catalysts. The RSI is neutral, and the 20-day moving average ($13.99) is just below the current price, offering technical support. Selling this bull put spread captures premium with defined risk, benefiting from time decay and a likely stable to slightly bullish underlying over the next two weeks.

Market intelligence shows no major catalysts in the past 24 hours, and the next earnings are far off, so the risk of a sudden volatility spike is low. The stock’s recent partnership with Uber and acquisition plans provide some fundamental support, though the company remains unprofitable. The high IV and put skew suggest some downside hedging demand, but the strike selection offers a good risk buffer.

📊 Pro Analysis

• IV Rank at 100% strongly supports selling premium.
• Put/Call volume ratio at 0.57 indicates more call buying but substantial put interest, consistent with elevated downside hedging.
• Technicals: RSI neutral, price just above the 20-day MA.
• Market sentiment cautious but stable for LCID.
• No earnings before expiration, reducing event risk.

🔍 Risk Assessment

• Max loss limited to $0.50 per spread if LCID closes below $11 at expiration.
• Breakeven at $11.50 provides a buffer of about 18% below current price.
• Moderate confidence given elevated IV and technical support.
• Risk of a sharp downside move remains due to company fundamentals, so position size should reflect risk tolerance.

💡 Trade Management

• Enter at net credit around $0.50 (midpoint of bid/ask).
• Consider closing early if stock approaches $12 or if IV drops significantly.
• Monitor technical support at $14 and 20-day MA at $13.99.
• Avoid holding through any unexpected news or market shocks.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• Intrinsic value of short 12 put: 0 (OTM)
• Intrinsic value of long 11 put: 0 (OTM)
• Spread width: $1.00
• Credit received: ~ $0.50 (above intrinsic)
• Put-call parity holds within tolerance for these strikes and expiration.

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This trade balances a high-probability premium collection with defined risk, leveraging the current elevated volatility environment and LCID’s technical positioning. It is suitable for traders with a neutral to mildly bullish bias on LCID over the next two weeks.