$JPM Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL JPM NOV 21 350/360 CALL SPREAD

I recommend this credit spread because the term structure reveals a critical pricing inefficiency: the 7-day Clean IV of 19.8% sits 3.8% BELOW the 16.6% baseline volatility, indicating options are underpriced relative to historical norms. However, this creates a SELL premium opportunity when combined with JPM's current technical setup. Following JPMorgan's strong Q3 earnings beat (EPS $5.07 vs. $4.83 estimate) and the strategic crypto lending announcement, the stock has already captured the upside momentum at $316.37. RSI at 63.49 shows neutral conditions, but price is 3.3% above the 20-day MA ($306.35), suggesting limited near-term upside. The Put/Call Volume Ratio of 0.07 indicates extremely bullish sentiment with heavy call buying already priced in.

Sell JPM Nov 21 350/360 Call Spread
Stock Price: $316.37 | Entry: $0.15 credit

📊 Trade Metrics

• Risk: $985 (width of spread minus credit received)
• Reward: $15 (credit collected)
• Breakeven: $360.15
• Max Loss: $985 if JPM > $360 at expiry
• Max Profit: $15 if JPM < $350 at expiry
• Win Rate: 98% (based on delta - both strikes OTM)
• Days to Expiration: 9

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Vol: 16.6%
• 7-day Clean IV: 19.8% (3.8% ABOVE baseline = SELL signal)
• Market IV: 20.8% (elevated for near-term)
• Current IV Rank: 100% (extremely high - premium collection favored)
• Calendar Opportunity: YES - 7d IV (20.8%) vs 27d IV (22.0%) shows 1.2% differential
• Recommendation: SELL near-term premium while IV elevated

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Net Delta: +0.052 (minimal directional risk)
• Theta: $2.40/day (rapid time decay benefits short position)
• Vega: -$12 (benefits from IV contraction)
• Current IV: 20.8% (elevated vs 16.6% baseline)
• IV Rank: 100% (Extremely High - optimal for selling)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.07 (extremely bullish - call premium expensive)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure analysis reveals that while Clean IV sits 3.8% above baseline, the market is pricing in excessive call premium given JPM's already-captured earnings rally. The Put/Call Volume Ratio of 0.07 (only 0.07 puts traded for every 1 call) confirms call buying exhaustion. JPM's RSI at 63.49 is neutral—not overbought—meaning the stock lacks momentum to push through $350 in 9 days. The $43.63 gap to the short strike (350) represents 13.8% upside required—well beyond the expected daily move of ±$6.28 (1.98%). Following the strong earnings and crypto announcement, institutional buying has already occurred; near-term premium collection is the edge. Theta decay of $2.40/day works powerfully in your favor over this short timeframe.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 20.8% vs Historical: 16.6%
• IV Rank: 100% (Extremely high - sell premium strategies heavily favored)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$6.28 (1.98%)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.07 (extremely bullish - calls expensive)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $350 (17,159 contracts)
• Technical: RSI 63.49 (neutral), Price 3.3% above 20MA
• Unusual Activity: Heavy call volume in 350/360 strikes

🔍 Earnings Date Check

Earnings on January 21, 2026 (70 days away). This Nov 21 expiration (9 days) is WELL BEFORE earnings, making it ideal for premium collection without earnings risk exposure.

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Sell to open at $0.15 credit (limit order)
• Target: Close at $0.05 (67% profit) by Nov 18
• Stop: Exit if JPM breaks above $355
• Time Stop: Close 2 days before Nov 21 expiration

📅 Economic Events: CPI tomorrow (Nov 13), NFP Dec 5, Fed Rate Decision Dec 10

⚠️ Options Expiration Validation
• Recommended expiration: November 21, 2025 (9 days)
• Earnings date: January 21, 2026
• Validation: ✅ Expires BEFORE earnings (avoids earnings volatility risk)

🔍 Market Overview

JPMorgan operates in a Fed-supportive environment with rate cuts potentially on hold through Q1 2026. The recent strong earnings and crypto lending expansion signal confidence in the business model. However, the stock has already rallied 3.3% above its 20-day MA, suggesting near-term consolidation. Sector peers (C, WFC, MS, BAC, GS) show mixed performance, with financials trading sideways. The $350 strike is 10.6% above current price—a meaningful buffer. Support sits at $306.35 (20MA), resistance at $319.55 (52-week high). The upcoming CPI print tomorrow could create intraday volatility, but the 9-day timeframe allows theta decay to work in your favor. No dividends until the next ex-date in Q1 2026.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 350 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), market price provides premium ✅
• 360 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), market price provides premium ✅
• Put-Call Parity: Validated across strikes ✅
• Sprea