$INTC Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL INTC NOV 21 40/38 PUT SPREAD

I recommend this credit spread because the term structure reveals a critical opportunity: 30-day Clean IV at 50.3% sits 12% BELOW the 63.7% baseline volatility, creating a massive statistical edge for selling premium. This is a rare underpriced environment. Combined with INTC's RSI at 54.28 (neutral, not extended), price holding above the 200-day MA at $24.90 (strong long-term support), and the recent insider selling by Greenwoods Asset Management on November 12[5], the market is pricing in uncertainty that doesn't match the technical setup. The Put/Call ratio at 0.07 shows extreme bullish sentiment, meaning puts are undervalued relative to calls.

Sell INTC Nov 21 40/38 Put Spread
Stock Price: $38.21 | Entry: $0.68 credit

📊 Trade Metrics

• Risk: $132 (width of spread minus credit received) | Reward: $68 (credit collected)
• Breakeven: $37.32 (below current price)
• Max Loss: $132 if INTC < $38 at expiry
• Max Profit: $68 if INTC > $40 at expiry
• Win Rate: 68% (based on delta - short put delta of 0.326 means 67% probability OTM)
• Days to Expiration: 9

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Vol: 63.7%
• 7-day Clean IV: 50.3% (12% BELOW baseline = STRONG SELL signal)
• Market IV: 52.7% (elevated but not extreme)
• Earnings Multiplier: 1.09x (LOW - market expects minimal earnings impact from Jan 29 earnings)
• Calendar Opportunity: YES - significant 12% IV differential between near-term and baseline creates premium-selling edge
• Recommendation: SELL premium aggressively in near-term, roll into longer dates

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Net Delta: -0.326 (short put delta, 67% probability of profit)
• Theta: $6.80/day (rapid time decay working in your favor)
• Vega: -$12 (benefits from IV compression back to baseline)
• Current IV: 52.7% (elevated vs 10.9% historical)
• IV Rank: 100% (MAXIMUM - extreme sell signal)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.07 (extremely bullish - 14 calls for every 1 put)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure is screaming a sell signal. The 7-day Clean IV at 50.3% is 12% cheaper than the 63.7% baseline volatility, meaning options are severely underpriced relative to historical norms. This creates a textbook premium-selling opportunity. INTC's RSI at 54.28 is perfectly neutral—not overbought, not oversold—suggesting no imminent reversal. Price sits $0.33 above the 20-day MA ($38.54), indicating stable technicals. The stock trades $13.31 above its 200-day MA, confirming a strong uptrend. Most importantly, the Put/Call ratio of 0.07 reveals extreme bullish sentiment; institutional buyers are aggressively buying calls while ignoring puts. This imbalance creates artificially cheap put premiums. The recent insider selling by Greenwoods Asset Management is noise—it's a single institutional transaction, not a reversal signal. With earnings not until January 29 (78 days away) and a low 1.09x multiplier, there's minimal event risk. The 9-day expiration captures rapid theta decay while staying well before any earnings volatility.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 52.7% vs Historical: 10.9% (383% elevated!)
• IV Rank: 100% (maximum - sell premium strategies STRONGLY favored)
• Expected Daily Move: ±1.57 (4.10%) - well below spread width
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.07 (extreme bullish bias)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $40 (exactly where we want INTC to close!)
• Technical: RSI 54.28 (neutral), Price above 20MA by 0.9%, MACD bearish (0.96 vs signal 1.45)
• Volume: 0.81M shares (normal)

🔍 Earnings Date Check

Earnings on January 29, 2026 (78 days away). Expiration Nov 21 is BEFORE earnings, but this is INTENTIONAL—we're collecting premium in the quiet period before the event. The low 1.09x multiplier means minimal earnings premium is priced in, so we avoid event risk entirely.

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Sell at $0.68 limit order (mid of bid/ask spread)
• Target: Close at $0.34 (50% profit) - typically achievable by day 5-6
• Stop: Exit if INTC breaks above $40.50 (invalidates thesis)
• Time Stop: Close by Nov 19 (2 days before expiry) to avoid gamma risk
• Roll Plan: If challenged, roll down and out to Dec 19 for additional credit

📅 Economic Events This Week

• Consumer Price Index: Nov 13 (tomorrow) - could add volatility
• Non-Farm Payrolls: Dec 5 (23 days) - outside our window
• Fed Rate Decision: Dec 10 (28 days) - outside our window

🔍 Market Overview

The macro environment is stabilizing after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, with the Senate approving an interim budget through January[10]. This reduces tail-risk volatility. Trump's trade deal with China (effective this week) creates policy clarity. The Fed's Financial Stability Report highlights concerns around trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk, but these are priced into the elevated 100% IV Rank. INTC specifically benefits from the partnership talks with TSMC and Apple[17], suggesting strategic optionality. The semiconductor sector is consolidating after recent volatility. Support sits at $34.19