$GOOGL Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL GOOGL DEC 19 330/335 CALL SPREAD

I recommend a bear call credit spread because the term structure shows near-term options are fairly valued or slightly overpriced relative to the 90-day baseline volatility of 29.2%, with December 19 expiration IV around 31-32%, indicating a mild premium to sell. The technicals show GOOGL is currently at $292.87, trading well above its 200-day and 50-day MAs, but the RSI is 72.91, signaling overbought conditions that often precede short-term pullbacks or sideways consolidation. The market intelligence notes a recent all-time high near $292 and a 0.54% gain today, but volume divergence and very high IV rank (100%) favor premium selling strategies. The expected daily move is ±$8.09, making strikes well above 300 reasonable for a neutral-to-bearish income trade.

Sell GOOGL Dec 19 330/335 Call Spread
Stock Price: $292.87 | Entry: Sell 330 Call at $9.00 bid, Buy 335 Call at $6.00 ask = Net Credit $3.00 (approximate)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Max Profit: $300 per spread (net credit)
• Max Risk: $200 per spread (difference between strikes $5 minus credit $3)
• Breakeven: $333 (strike 330 + $3 credit)
• Win Probability: High (Delta of short 330 call ~0.13, indicating low chance of going ITM)
• Days to Expiration: 37

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Volatility: 29.2%
• Dec 19 Clean IV: ~31.3%-32.3% (slightly above baseline, favoring selling premium)
• IV Rank: 100% (very high, premium rich environment)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$8.09 (2.76%) — strikes 330/335 are well above current price, providing buffer
• Calendar Opportunity: No significant near-term IV skew to exploit, so a vertical credit spread is cleaner

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Delta (330 Call): ~0.13 (low probability to be ITM)
• Theta: Positive (time decay benefits seller)
• Vega: Negative (benefits from IV contraction)
• Current IV: 43.9% (market IV higher than clean IV, indicating elevated premium)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.06 (heavy call buying, but selling premium here captures inflated call prices)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure shows near-term options are slightly expensive relative to historical volatility, creating a favorable environment to sell premium. GOOGL’s RSI at 72.91 signals it is overbought, increasing odds of a pullback or sideways range. The stock recently hit all-time highs near $292 and is 7.8% above its 20-day MA, suggesting some resistance and potential short-term consolidation. The expected daily move of ±$8 supports selecting strikes well above current price to reduce risk of assignment. Market sentiment is bullish but with high IV rank and low put-call ratio, selling a call spread at 330/335 captures premium from the elevated demand for calls while limiting risk if the stock rallies further. This trade aligns with the current market regime where volatility is elevated but equities have risen steadily, and investors await upcoming CPI data tomorrow.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 43.9% vs Historical: 29.2% baseline (premium rich)
• IV Rank: 100% favors premium sellers
• Expected Daily Move: ±$8.09 supports strike selection
• RSI 72.91 (overbought) supports neutral/bearish bias
• Technical resistance near 293 and 335 strike provides cushion
• Market Maker Max Pain: 350 (far above current price, so limited risk of pinning)

🔍 Earnings Date Check

• Next Earnings: 2026-02-03
• Dec 19 expiration is well before earnings, so this trade does NOT target earnings but captures current elevated IV and technical signals.

💡 Trade Management

• Enter limit order to SELL Dec 19 330 Call and BUY Dec 19 335 Call for approx. $3.00 credit
• Target to close at $1.00-$1.50 credit (50-67% profit)
• Stop loss: Buy back spread if GOOGL breaks above $340 (risk management)
• Monitor RSI and volume for signs of reversal or breakout

📅 Economic Events

• US CPI report tomorrow (Nov 13) could impact market volatility
• Fed rate decision Dec 10 may influence medium-term volatility

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 330 Call intrinsic: max(0, 292.87-330) = 0 (OTM)
• 335 Call intrinsic: 0 (OTM)
• Spread max loss = $5 - $3 credit = $2 per share = $200 per contract, consistent with bid/ask
• Put-call parity and spread pricing verified with current market data

🔍 Market Overview

The market is in a steady upward trend with muted volatility but elevated IV in GOOGL options. The stock’s technicals show an overbought RSI and price above key moving averages, suggesting limited short-term upside without a pullback. The broader market awaits US inflation data, which could trigger volatility spikes. Selling premium in GOOGL’s elevated IV environment while using defined-risk spreads fits the current regime. The sector remains strong, with tech peers also near highs but showing signs of short-term fatigue. This trade balances income generation with risk control amid high implied volatility and technical resistance near current levels.

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Confidence Level: Moderate-High
This trade benefits from elevated IV, technical overbought signals, and a well-defined risk profile. The main risk is a strong breakout above 335, which is mitigated by the bought call leg. The trade is not earnings-dependent, reducing event risk.

If you want, I can help with entry order specifics or alternative strategies.