$GOOGL Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL GOOGL DEC 19 300/290 PUT SPREAD

I recommend a bull put spread because the December 19 expiration options show favorable pricing and the term structure indicates options are underpriced relative to historical volatility. Alphabet (GOOGL) is trading at $318.06, well above the $300 strike, giving a good cushion for this spread. The 30-day Clean IV is below the 29% baseline volatility for this expiration, signaling a buying opportunity on premium. Additionally, bullish analyst sentiment citing AI-driven efficiencies and strong ad revenue supports a moderately bullish outlook. This spread offers defined risk and attractive premium collection with a strong probability of expiring worthless, benefiting from the current bullish momentum and high IV rank favoring premium sellers.

Sell GOOGL Dec 19 300/290 Put Spread
Stock Price: $318.06 | Entry Credit: ~$1.08 (approximate based on recent data)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Max Risk: $892 (difference between strikes $10 minus premium collected $1.08 × 100)
• Max Reward: $108 premium collected
• Breakeven: $298.92 (strike 300 minus premium 1.08)
• Win Probability: High, as stock is currently $18 above short strike
• Days to Expiration: 14

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Volatility: 29.0%
• 30-day Clean IV for Dec 19: ~27% (under baseline, buy signal)
• Market IV Rank: 100% (high, favors selling premium)
• Earnings Date: Feb 3, 2026 (well after Dec 19 expiry, no earnings risk)
• Calendar/Diagonal Opportunity: Moderate IV discount in near-term expirations supports selling premium
• Expected Daily Move: ±$10.28 (3.23%) supports strike selection below current price

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Delta: Moderately bullish, short put spread benefits if price stays above $300
• Theta: Positive for seller, time decay works in favor
• Vega: Negative, benefits if implied volatility contracts

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure reveals Dec 19 options have Clean IV below baseline, making premium selling attractive. The stock trades at $318.06, comfortably above the $300 short put strike, providing a margin of safety. Market intelligence highlights strong bullish analyst upgrades due to AI-driven cost efficiencies and seasonal advertising momentum pushing price targets higher ($350 to $400). The high IV rank (100%) suggests options are expensive, favoring selling premium strategies. Technicals show price above 20-day and 50-day moving averages, RSI neutral at ~68, and strong support above $315. This spread captures premium with limited risk while aligning with bullish market sentiment and solid fundamentals.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 51.3% (elevated) vs Historical: 29% baseline
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.05 (very bullish, heavy call buying)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $360 (above current price, supporting bullish bias)
• Technical: RSI 68.5 (neutral), price above 20-day MA by 5.6%
• Analyst Upgrades: Pivotal Research raised target to $400 citing AI and pricing power; Truist to $350 citing holiday ad strength

🔍 Earnings Date Check

Earnings on Feb 3, 2026; recommended Dec 19 expiration is well before earnings, avoiding earnings volatility risk.

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Sell the Dec 19 300 put and buy the 290 put for a net credit near $1.08
• Target: Hold for full premium if GOOGL remains above $300
• Stop: Consider closing if price falls below $298 to limit losses
• Time Stop: Close 1-2 days before expiration to avoid last-minute volatility

📅 Economic Events

• Fed Rate Decision on Dec 10 (5 days away) could impact market volatility
• Consumer Price Index on Dec 10 may influence broader market sentiment

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 300 Put intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), trading near $1.08 premium collected ✅
• 290 Put intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), bought as hedge ✅
• Spread pricing logical: Debit spread cost less than max risk, credit spread net credit received ✅
• Put-Call parity and spread pricing confirmed valid

🔍 Market Overview

The market currently favors growth and tech stocks with strong AI exposure, as seen in GOOGL's recent analyst upgrades citing AI-driven efficiencies and advertising strength. The stock price at $318.06 is supported by bullish technicals (above 20-day and 50-day MAs) and solid fundamentals (EPS $2.89, profit margin 34.2%). The sector is buoyed by holiday season e-commerce momentum. Implied volatility is elevated, reflecting high premium levels, supporting a premium selling strategy. The Fed's upcoming rate decision and CPI data could introduce short-term volatility, but the defined-risk put spread limits downside exposure. The trade aligns with the bullish sentiment but protects against moderate downside.

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Confidence Level: Moderate-High
Risk Assessment: Defined risk of $892 max loss; limited by buying the $290 put. The trade benefits from time decay and a bullish to neutral price outlook. Risk is managed by the $10 wide spread and the current price cushion above $300. Potential volatility from Fed and CPI events should be monitored closely.