$GE Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL GE 2025-12-19 320/330 CALL CREDIT SPREAD

I recommend this trade because GE options are currently overpriced (Clean IV 29.2% vs 20.8% baseline volatility), institutional buying is strong, and the stock is trading near key resistance with neutral technicals. The recent $50M UAE investment and flydubai engine deal have boosted sentiment, but the market is pricing in excessive volatility, making premium selling optimal.

Sell GE Dec 19 320/330 Call Spread
Stock Price: $304.87 | Entry: $0.85 credit

📊 Trade Metrics

• Risk: $915 | Reward: $85 (9.3% return)
• Breakeven: $320.85
• Max Loss: $915 if GE > $330 at expiry
• Max Profit: $85 if GE < $320 at expiry
• Win Rate: 82% (based on delta)
• Days to Expiration: 32

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Vol: 20.8%
• 24d Clean IV: 29.2% (8.4% above baseline = SELL signal)
• Market IV: 30.6% (overpriced)
• Earnings Multiplier: 3.82x (high, but earnings are 66 days away)
• Calendar Opportunity: No (adjacent expiries show <5% IV difference)
• Recommendation: SELL premium, avoid calendars

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Net Delta: +0.12 (slightly bullish)
• Theta: +$1.20/day (benefits from time decay)
• Vega: -$18 (benefits from IV drop)
• Current IV: 30.6% (high vs 20.8% historical)
• IV Rank: 100% (extremely high)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.32 (very bullish sentiment)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure shows a clear sell signal: Clean IV is 8.4% above the 20.8% baseline, indicating options are overpriced. GE’s recent $50M UAE investment and flydubai engine deal have driven institutional buying (Intrust Bank NA, Nomura Asset Management), but the stock is trading below its 20-day MA ($307.37) with neutral RSI (50.41). The 320/330 call spread targets the next resistance zone, where recent highs have capped rallies. With IV at 30.6% (well above historical 20.8%), selling premium offers a statistical edge. The expected daily move is ±$6.81, making 320/330 strikes appropriate for defined risk.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 30.6% vs Historical: 20.8%
• IV Rank: 100% (sell premium)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$6.81 (2.23%)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.32 (bullish)
• Market Maker Max Pain: 320
• Technical: RSI 50.41 (neutral), Price below 20MA by 0.8%
• Unusual Activity: 350 put volume spike (bearish hedge)

🔍 Earnings Date Check

• Earnings: 2026-01-22
• Expiration: 2025-12-19 (BEFORE earnings)
• Validation: ✅ Expires BEFORE earnings (avoids earnings risk)

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order at $0.85 (mid of $0.80/$0.90)
• Target: Close at $0.20 (76% profit)
• Stop: Exit if GE breaks above $315
• Time Stop: Close 2 days before expiration

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 320 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), trading at $0.85 ✅
• 330 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM), trading at $0.00 ✅
• Put-Call Parity Check: C - P ≈ S - K holds within tolerance ✅
• Spread pricing verified: Credit spread with proper bid/ask alignment ✅

Confidence Level: 85% (high IV, strong institutional support, neutral technicals)
Risk Assessment: Low (defined risk, high probability of success, avoids earnings risk)