# Ford (F) Options Analysis - November 12, 2025
Current Market Regime Assessment
We're in a transitional period for equities. The Fed has maintained its hawkish stance with rates elevated, creating headwinds for cyclical stocks like Ford. However, the recent Trump Administration's pro-crypto and deregulatory stance (as of April 2025) has created a risk-on environment for select sectors. Auto stocks specifically face structural challenges from EV competition, yet Ford trades at a reasonable valuation with strong dividend support. Today's modest 0.26% gain reflects institutional accumulationâAllworth Financial LP and Quinn Opportunity Partners LLC both increased stakes on November 12, signaling insider confidence.
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## đŻ RECOMMENDED TRADE: SELL F DEC 19 11.67/11.50 PUT SPREAD
Current Stock Price: $13.33 | Entry: $0.15 credit
I recommend this credit spread because the term structure reveals a compelling premium-selling opportunity combined with Ford's technical strength and fundamental support. The 27-day Clean IV at 31.7% sits BELOW the 35.1% baseline volatility, creating an underpriced environmentâbut Ford's RSI at 62.31 (neutral, not overbought) and price trading 3.5% above the 20-day MA suggest the stock has room to consolidate. This put spread captures premium decay while limiting downside risk to a defined level.
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## đ Trade Specifications
SELL F DEC 19 11.67 Put | Bid/Ask: Market | Mid: $0.45 | IV: 31.4% | Delta: -0.147
BUY F DEC 19 11.50 Put | Bid/Ask: Market | Mid: $0.30 | IV: 31.8% | Delta: -0.102
⢠Net Credit: $0.15 (sell $0.45, buy $0.30)
⢠Max Risk: $17 (width of spread $0.17 - credit $0.15)
⢠Max Profit: $15 (credit collected)
⢠Breakeven: $11.52 (short strike $11.67 - credit $0.15)
⢠Win Rate: 85% (based on delta of short put)
⢠Return on Risk: 88% ($15 profit / $17 risk)
⢠Days to Expiration: 37
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## đ Term Structure & Volatility Analysis
This is the PRIMARY driver of this trade:
⢠Baseline 90-day Vol: 35.1%
⢠27-day Clean IV: 31.7% (3.4% BELOW baseline = SELL SIGNAL)
⢠Current Market IV: 37.3% (elevated vs historical 8.1%)
⢠IV Rank: 100% (extremely highâpremium collection favored)
⢠Earnings Multiplier: 1.89x (moderateâno extreme move expected)
⢠Calendar Opportunity: YES â 27-day IV at 31.7% vs 47-day at 32.9% shows minimal differential, but all expirations are underpriced relative to baseline
Why This Matters: When Clean IV sits below baseline volatility, options are statistically cheap. Ford's elevated IV Rank (100%) combined with underpriced near-term options creates a rare confluence: sell premium at historically high levels while capturing time decay.
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## đ Greeks & Risk Profile
⢠Net Delta: -0.045 (slightly bearish bias, but neutral enough for range-bound stock)
⢠Theta: +$0.003/day (time decay works in your favor)
⢠Vega: -$0.12 (benefits from IV contractionâlikely as we move past the 37.3% spike)
⢠Gamma: Minimal (spread width limits gamma risk)
⢠Current IV: 37.3% (elevated vs 8.1% historical)
⢠Put/Call Ratio: 0.95 (neutral sentimentâno panic buying)
⢠Market Maker Max Pain: $11.67 (YOUR SHORT STRIKEâmaximum pain aligns perfectly)
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## đŻ Why This Trade
The term structure reveals Ford options are underpriced relative to historical volatilityâ27-day Clean IV of 31.7% sits 3.4% below the 35.1% baseline. This creates a statistical edge for premium sellers. Combined with IV Rank at 100%, we're capturing options at historically elevated levels before they contract.
Technicals support the trade: RSI at 62.31 is neutral (not overbought), price sits 3.5% above the 20-day MA ($12.88), and the stock trades above the 200-day MA ($10.87)âbullish structure but not extended. The $0.15 quarterly dividend (ex-date November 7, already passed) removes dividend risk.
Fundamentals: Ford's 4.5% dividend yield attracts institutional capitalâevidenced by Allworth Financial LP and Quinn Opportunity Partners LLC stake increases today. Consensus price target of $11.73 sits below current price, but analyst ratings remain "Hold" (neutral). The payout ratio of 51.72% is sustainable.
Market Intelligence: Ford shares gained 1.2% on November 11 as the auto sector confronts EV competition. CEO Jim Farley's recent comments about being "humbled" by Tesla's Model 3 teardown show management awareness of competitive pressuresâbut this is already priced in. The stock's stability at $13.33 suggests consolidation, not capitulation.
Expected Daily Move: Âą0.31 (2.35%). Your short strike at $11.67 sits 1.66 below current price (12.5% downside buffer)âwell beyond expected daily volatility.
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## đĄ Trade Management
⢠Entry: Sell at $0.15 credit (limit order)
⢠Target: Close at $0.08 credit (50% profit = $8 gain)
⢠Stop Loss: Exit if F breaks below $11.50 (your long strike) on close
⢠Time Management: Close 7 days before expiration (Dec 12) to avoid gamma acceleration
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