$F Options Intelligence

# Ford (F) Options Analysis - November 12, 2025

Current Market Regime Assessment

We're in a transitional period for equities. The Fed has maintained its hawkish stance with rates elevated, creating headwinds for cyclical stocks like Ford. However, the recent Trump Administration's pro-crypto and deregulatory stance (as of April 2025) has created a risk-on environment for select sectors. Auto stocks specifically face structural challenges from EV competition, yet Ford trades at a reasonable valuation with strong dividend support. Today's modest 0.26% gain reflects institutional accumulation—Allworth Financial LP and Quinn Opportunity Partners LLC both increased stakes on November 12, signaling insider confidence.

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## 🎯 RECOMMENDED TRADE: SELL F DEC 19 11.67/11.50 PUT SPREAD

Current Stock Price: $13.33 | Entry: $0.15 credit

I recommend this credit spread because the term structure reveals a compelling premium-selling opportunity combined with Ford's technical strength and fundamental support. The 27-day Clean IV at 31.7% sits BELOW the 35.1% baseline volatility, creating an underpriced environment—but Ford's RSI at 62.31 (neutral, not overbought) and price trading 3.5% above the 20-day MA suggest the stock has room to consolidate. This put spread captures premium decay while limiting downside risk to a defined level.

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## 📊 Trade Specifications

SELL F DEC 19 11.67 Put | Bid/Ask: Market | Mid: $0.45 | IV: 31.4% | Delta: -0.147
BUY F DEC 19 11.50 Put | Bid/Ask: Market | Mid: $0.30 | IV: 31.8% | Delta: -0.102

• Net Credit: $0.15 (sell $0.45, buy $0.30)
• Max Risk: $17 (width of spread $0.17 - credit $0.15)
• Max Profit: $15 (credit collected)
• Breakeven: $11.52 (short strike $11.67 - credit $0.15)
• Win Rate: 85% (based on delta of short put)
• Return on Risk: 88% ($15 profit / $17 risk)
• Days to Expiration: 37

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## 📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

This is the PRIMARY driver of this trade:

• Baseline 90-day Vol: 35.1%
• 27-day Clean IV: 31.7% (3.4% BELOW baseline = SELL SIGNAL)
• Current Market IV: 37.3% (elevated vs historical 8.1%)
• IV Rank: 100% (extremely high—premium collection favored)
• Earnings Multiplier: 1.89x (moderate—no extreme move expected)
• Calendar Opportunity: YES — 27-day IV at 31.7% vs 47-day at 32.9% shows minimal differential, but all expirations are underpriced relative to baseline

Why This Matters: When Clean IV sits below baseline volatility, options are statistically cheap. Ford's elevated IV Rank (100%) combined with underpriced near-term options creates a rare confluence: sell premium at historically high levels while capturing time decay.

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## 📊 Greeks & Risk Profile

• Net Delta: -0.045 (slightly bearish bias, but neutral enough for range-bound stock)
• Theta: +$0.003/day (time decay works in your favor)
• Vega: -$0.12 (benefits from IV contraction—likely as we move past the 37.3% spike)
• Gamma: Minimal (spread width limits gamma risk)
• Current IV: 37.3% (elevated vs 8.1% historical)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.95 (neutral sentiment—no panic buying)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $11.67 (YOUR SHORT STRIKE—maximum pain aligns perfectly)

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## 🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure reveals Ford options are underpriced relative to historical volatility—27-day Clean IV of 31.7% sits 3.4% below the 35.1% baseline. This creates a statistical edge for premium sellers. Combined with IV Rank at 100%, we're capturing options at historically elevated levels before they contract.

Technicals support the trade: RSI at 62.31 is neutral (not overbought), price sits 3.5% above the 20-day MA ($12.88), and the stock trades above the 200-day MA ($10.87)—bullish structure but not extended. The $0.15 quarterly dividend (ex-date November 7, already passed) removes dividend risk.

Fundamentals: Ford's 4.5% dividend yield attracts institutional capital—evidenced by Allworth Financial LP and Quinn Opportunity Partners LLC stake increases today. Consensus price target of $11.73 sits below current price, but analyst ratings remain "Hold" (neutral). The payout ratio of 51.72% is sustainable.

Market Intelligence: Ford shares gained 1.2% on November 11 as the auto sector confronts EV competition. CEO Jim Farley's recent comments about being "humbled" by Tesla's Model 3 teardown show management awareness of competitive pressures—but this is already priced in. The stock's stability at $13.33 suggests consolidation, not capitulation.

Expected Daily Move: ±0.31 (2.35%). Your short strike at $11.67 sits 1.66 below current price (12.5% downside buffer)—well beyond expected daily volatility.

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## 💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Sell at $0.15 credit (limit order)
• Target: Close at $0.08 credit (50% profit = $8 gain)
• Stop Loss: Exit if F breaks below $11.50 (your long strike) on close
• Time Management: Close 7 days before expiration (Dec 12) to avoid gamma acceleration
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