$CRM Options Intelligence

# CRM Options Trade Analysis - November 12, 2025

🎯 SELL CRM NOV 28 245/240 PUT SPREAD

Current Stock Price: $245.63

I recommend this credit spread because the term structure reveals a critical pricing inefficiency: the 12-day (Nov 28) expiration shows Clean IV of 28.7% sitting 3.6% below the 32.3% baseline volatility, creating a BUY signal for premium collection. However, the 17-day (Dec 5) expiration jumps to 42.3% Clean IV—a 13.6% IV differential—indicating earnings event premium is front-loaded into December contracts. This creates a calendar arbitrage opportunity: sell the underpriced near-term premium, capture theta decay before the Dec 3 earnings, and avoid the earnings volatility spike.

Sell CRM Nov 28 245/240 Put Spread
Entry: $0.95 credit | Stock Price: $245.63

📊 Trade Metrics

• Risk: $405 (width of spread minus credit collected)
• Reward: $95 (credit collected)
• Breakeven: $244.05
• Max Loss: $405 if CRM < $240 at expiry
• Max Profit: $95 if CRM > $245 at expiry
• Win Rate: 68% (based on delta)
• Days to Expiration: 16

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Vol: 32.3%
• 12-day Clean IV: 28.7% (3.6% BELOW baseline = BUY signal)
• 17-day Clean IV: 42.3% (10% ABOVE baseline = SELL signal)
• Calendar Spread Opportunity: YES — 13.6% IV differential between Nov 28 and Dec 5
• Market IV: 44.7% (elevated vs historical 9.9%)
• IV Rank: 100% (maximum — premium collection heavily favored)
• Earnings Multiplier: 2.21x (moderate — market expects standard earnings volatility)
• Recommendation: SELL near-term premium, AVOID December expirations until post-earnings clarity

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Net Delta: -0.32 (short 32 deltas — 68% probability of profit)
• Theta: $6.20/day (aggressive time decay works in your favor)
• Vega: +$12 (benefits from IV compression post-earnings)
• Current IV: 44.7% (elevated vs 9.9% historical average)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.21 (extremely bullish — only 0.21 puts traded per call)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$6.91 (2.81%)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure is screaming a calendar arbitrage signal. The 12-day Nov 28 expiration trades at 28.7% Clean IV—3.6% below the 32.3% baseline—meaning options are statistically underpriced relative to historical volatility norms. Simultaneously, the 17-day Dec 5 expiration (which straddles the Dec 3 earnings) is priced at 42.3% Clean IV, a 13.6% spread that represents pure earnings event premium. This creates a textbook calendar opportunity: sell the cheap near-term premium, collect $95 per spread, and let theta decay accelerate over 16 days.

Technical backdrop supports this trade: CRM trades at $245.63, sitting 2.4% below the 20-day MA of $251.55 and significantly below the 200-day MA of $267.28—a bearish technical setup. RSI at 47.37 is neutral (not overbought), and MACD is bearish at -0.73. The stock is in a downtrend, making short puts attractive.

Sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish: Put/Call ratio of 0.21 means traders are buying calls 4.8x more than puts. This extreme call skew suggests puts are undervalued—perfect for selling. The unusual activity shows heavy call buying in Nov 28 272.5 calls (2.0x normal volume), indicating bullish positioning that supports our put strike selection.

Earnings date is critical: Dec 3 earnings fall 5 days after expiration, so this trade captures pure time decay without earnings risk. You exit before the volatility spike.

📊 Pro Analysis

• IV Rank: 100% (maximum — sell premium strategies dominate)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$6.91 (supports 245/240 strike selection)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.21 (extremely bullish — puts undervalued)
• Unusual Activity: Nov 28 272.5 calls showing 2.0x normal volume
• Max Pain: $270 (46,678 contracts) — far from our strikes
• Technical: RSI 47.37 (neutral), Price below 20MA by 2.4%, MACD bearish

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Sell at $0.95 credit (mid of bid/ask spread)
• Target: Close at $0.50 (47% profit on credit)
• Stop: Exit if CRM breaks above $248 (invalidates bearish setup)
• Time Stop: Close 3 days before Nov 28 expiration to capture final theta decay
• Earnings Adjustment: Hold through expiration (expires before Dec 3 earnings)

📅 Economic Events

• Consumer Price Index: Nov 13 (1 day away) — could create volatility
• Non-Farm Payrolls: Dec 5 (23 days)
• Fed Rate Decision: Dec 10 (28 days)

⚠️ Options Expiration Validation
• Recommended expiration: Nov 28, 2025 (16 days)
• Earnings date: Dec 3, 2025
• Validation: ✅ Expires BEFORE earnings — This is intentional. You avoid earnings volatility while capturing the underpriced near-term premium. The Dec 5 expiration shows 42.3% Clean IV (overpriced), so we deliberately avoid it.