$AMD Options Intelligence

## Current Market Regime and AMD Analysis

As of September 17, 2025, the market is navigating a complex environment with the Fed maintaining elevated interest rates to combat post-COVID stimulus inflation. Recent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. sanctions and Israel's strikes on Iran, have increased volatility. In this context, AMD's stock is experiencing a consolidation phase, with reduced volatility that could precede a significant price movement.

### AMD Stock Overview
• Current Price: $160.46
• RSI(14): 48.55 (Neutral)
• 20-day MA: $161.58 (Price below by 0.7%)
• 200-day MA: $126.27 (Bullish - above 200MA)
• MACD: -1.85 (Signal: -1.43) - Bearish
• EPS: $1.75
• Revenue: $29.60B
• Net Income: $2.83B
• Profit Margin: 9.6%

### Term Structure Analysis
The term structure indicates high IV across all expirations, suggesting options are overpriced relative to historical norms. The baseline 90-day historical volatility is 44.2%, and most expirations show Clean IV above this level, indicating a sell premium strategy may be favorable.

### Trade Recommendation

Given the high IV and the current market conditions, a Bull Call Spread is not optimal due to overpriced options. Instead, a Calendar Spread could be considered to exploit the time decay and IV differences between expirations. However, since all near-term expirations are overpriced, a more conservative approach might involve waiting for a better entry point.

### Alternative Strategy: Bear Call Spread
Since AMD's stock is slightly below its 20-day MA and the technical indicators suggest a neutral to bearish short-term outlook, a Bear Call Spread could be a viable option. This strategy involves selling a lower strike call and buying a higher strike call, collecting a credit and profiting if the stock stays below the short strike at expiration.

### Specific Trade

🎯 SELL AMD Oct 3 165/170 Call Spread

Stock Price: $160.46

Trade Metrics
• Entry: Assume a credit of approximately $1.50 (using mid of bid/ask for both legs)
• Risk: Unlimited if AMD > $170 at expiry
• Reward: $150 credit if AMD < $165 at expiry
• Breakeven: $166.50
• Win Rate: High if AMD stays below $165

Term Structure & Volatility Analysis
• The Clean IV for the October 3 expiration is 54.1%, which is above historical norms, supporting a sell premium strategy.
• There is no significant calendar opportunity since all expirations are overpriced.

Greeks & Volatility
• Delta: Short delta for the spread, indicating a bearish bias.
• Theta: Benefits from time decay.
• Vega: Sensitive to IV changes; a decrease in IV would benefit the spread.

Why This Trade
The term structure analysis suggests that options are overpriced, making a sell premium strategy appealing. The recent consolidation in AMD's stock and the bearish MACD signal support a short-term bearish outlook. The low put-call volume ratio indicates heavy call buying, which could lead to a correction if market sentiment shifts.

Pro Analysis
• Current IV: High across all expirations, indicating overpriced options.
• IV Rank: 100% (High - favors selling premium).
• Expected Daily Move: ±4.80 (2.99%).
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.05 (very bullish, but suggests potential for correction).

Earnings Date Check
Earnings are scheduled for November 4, 2025. The recommended expiration is October 3, 2025, which is before earnings. However, if the goal is not to capture the earnings move, this expiration can still be used.

Trade Management
• Entry: Place limit order for the spread at the desired credit.
• Target: Close half of the position at a 50% profit.
• Stop: Exit if AMD breaks above $170.
• Time Stop: Close 2 days before expiration.

Market Overview
The current market regime is characterized by elevated interest rates and geopolitical tensions, which can impact technology stocks like AMD. The semiconductor sector is competitive, with AMD facing challenges from rivals like Broadcom. Despite this, AMD's strong growth fundamentals remain attractive to investors.