$AMD Options Intelligence

# AMD Options Trade Analysis – November 12, 2025

🎯 SELL AMD NOV 21 260/270 CALL SPREAD

Stock Price: $253.44 | Entry: Sell for $0.85 credit

I recommend this call spread because AMD's term structure reveals a critical pricing inefficiency: the 9-day Clean IV at 25.6% sits 2.4% below the 67.6% baseline volatility, creating a BUY signal for volatility. However, the immediate catalyst—AMD's Financial Analyst Day on November 11 announcing 35%+ revenue growth targets—has already been priced in with today's 6.70% rally. The stock jumped 5%+ in premarket after unveiling MI350 Series GPU leadership and $20+ EPS targets[3]. This is a sell premium opportunity into strength after the news catalyst has been absorbed.

The elevated IV Rank of 100% combined with the stock's overbought RSI of 59.33 (neutral but elevated) and price 2.8% above the 20-day MA suggests profit-taking risk. The Put/Call ratio of 0.02 shows extreme bullish sentiment—a contrarian signal to fade. Selling the 260/270 call spread captures premium decay while capping upside risk at 6.7% above current price.

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## Trade Execution

SELL AMD NOV 21 260/270 CALL SPREAD
• Sell 1 AMD Nov 21 260 Call | Mid: $2.10
• Buy 1 AMD Nov 21 270 Call | Mid: $0.75
• Net Credit: $1.35 (Bid/Ask: $1.30/$1.40)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Max Profit: $135 (if AMD ≤ $260 at expiry)
• Max Loss: $865 (if AMD ≥ $270 at expiry)
• Risk/Reward: 1:0.16 (unfavorable, but directional bias is bearish)
• Breakeven: $261.35
• Win Probability: 68% (based on delta of short call: 0.30)
• Days to Expiration: 9 days
• Return on Risk: 15.6% in 9 days (annualized: 634%)

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## 📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

Baseline 90-day Historical Vol: 67.6%
9-day (Nov 21) Clean IV: 25.6% | Market IV: 25.6%
Signal: 🟢 BUY volatility (Clean IV 42% below baseline)

This creates a paradox: while term structure favors buying volatility, the news catalyst has already fired. AMD's Financial Analyst Day unveiled transformational growth targets—35%+ annual revenue growth, MI450 GPUs launching Q3 2026, and >50% server CPU market share goals[3]. The stock rallied 5%+ premarket and closed up 6.70% today. This is classic "sell the news" setup.

Calendar Opportunity: The 2-day (Nov 14) IV of 20.2% vs 9-day (Nov 21) IV of 25.6% shows 5.4% differential—ideal for calendar spreads. However, given the post-catalyst environment, selling near-term premium into strength is optimal.

Earnings Check: Next earnings February 3, 2026 (83 days away). ✅ This trade expires Nov 21, well before earnings—no earnings risk.

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## 📊 Greeks & Risk Analysis

• Net Delta: -0.30 (bearish bias—profits if stock falls)
• Theta: +$15/day (time decay accelerates into Nov 21)
• Vega: -$18 (benefits from IV contraction; current IV 100% rank means compression likely)
• Current IV: 86.8% average across all expirations (extremely elevated)
• IV Rank: 100% (highest percentile—strong sell signal)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$13.86 (5.47%)

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## 🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure reveals underpriced volatility at 25.6% Clean IV vs 67.6% baseline—typically a buy signal. However, context matters. AMD just held its Financial Analyst Day on November 11, announcing ambitious targets: 35%+ annual revenue growth, MI350 Series GPUs as "fastest ramping product in company history," and non-GAAP operating margins exceeding 35%[3]. The stock jumped 5%+ premarket and closed +6.70% today.

This is textbook "sell the news into strength." The catalyst has been absorbed. IV Rank at 100% indicates options are priced at extremes—perfect for premium collection. The Put/Call volume ratio of 0.02 (only 0.02 puts for every 1 call) shows extreme bullish positioning, a contrarian signal.

Technical Setup: RSI at 59.33 is neutral but elevated. Price at $253.44 sits 2.8% above the 20-day MA ($246.48), suggesting potential mean reversion. Support at the 50-day MA ($204.30) is strong, but near-term resistance at $260-270 is realistic.

Fundamental Context: AMD's P/E ratio of 127.75 reflects high growth expectations already priced in[2]. UBS maintains a $300 price target, but the stock has already gained 97% YTD[3]. Loop Capital set $290 target (Nov 5), Truist raised to $279 (Nov 5). Upside is limited in the near term.

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## 💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order to SELL at $1.35 (mid of $1.30/$1.40 bid/ask)
• Target: Close at $0.50 (63% profit) by Nov 18
• Stop Loss: Exit if AMD closes above $265 (assignment risk)
• Time Stop: Close 2 days before Nov 21 expiration to avoid pin risk

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## 🔍 Market Overview

Current Regime: Post-catalyst consolidation. Fed policy