$AMC Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL AMC 2026-01-16 2.5/3.0 CALL SPREAD

I recommend a bear call spread because AMC's options show a very high implied volatility (IV) environment with a 30-day Clean IV (~89.2%) well above the 90-day baseline historical volatility of 47.3%, indicating options are overpriced and premium selling is favored. The current stock price is $2.31, just below the key resistance level near $2.50 (Max Pain). The market sentiment is bearish due to weaker-than-expected box office performance over Thanksgiving and negative recent price trends. The put/call volume ratio of 0.13 signals heavy call buying, but the very high IV rank (100%) and overpricing suggest selling premium is the prudent strategy. The bear call spread caps risk while collecting premium, suitable for this environment.

Trade Details:

Sell 1 AMC Jan 16, 2026 2.5 Call @ $0.50 (bid)

Buy 1 AMC Jan 16, 2026 3.0 Call @ $0.30 (ask)

Net Credit: $0.20 per share ($20 per spread)

Stock Price: $2.31

📊 Trade Metrics:

• Max Profit: $20 (net credit)

• Max Risk: $30 (difference between strikes $0.50 - credit $0.20)

• Breakeven: $2.70 (strike 2.5 + net credit 0.20)

• Probability of Profit: Moderate to high (stock below $2.5 at expiration)

• Days to Expiration: 42 days

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis:

• Baseline 90-day Volatility: 47.3%

• 30-day Clean IV: 89.2% (41.9% above baseline, indicating strong overpricing)

• Market IV: 93.6% (Jan 16 calls)

• IV Rank: 100% (extremely high, favors selling premium)

• Earnings Date: 2026-02-24 (trade expiration before earnings, so no earnings risk)

• Calendar Opportunity: No significant near-term IV skew to exploit, but selling premium in high IV environment is optimal

📈 Greeks & Volatility:

• Delta (2.5 Call): ~0.47 (moderate directional exposure)

• Theta: Positive for net credit spread (time decay works in favor)

• Vega: Negative (benefits from IV contraction)

🎯 Why This Trade:

The term structure shows AMC’s options are heavily overpriced relative to historical volatility, creating a strong edge for premium sellers. The stock is trading below the Max Pain point of $2.50, which is a natural resistance level. Recent market intelligence highlights weaker box office receipts during Thanksgiving, pressuring the stock. Technical indicators show AMC below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming bearish momentum. The very high IV and IV rank (100%) combined with the bearish context make selling a call spread at the 2.5/3.0 strikes a defined-risk way to capitalize on expected limited upside and time decay.

📊 Pro Analysis:

• Current IV: 93.6% vs Historical: 47.3%

• IV Rank: 100% (strong sell premium signal)

• Expected Daily Move: ±$0.14 (6.18%)

• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.13 (heavy call buying but likely speculative)

• Max Pain: $2.50 (close to short strike)

• Technical: Price below 50-day ($2.59) and 200-day ($2.89) MAs, RSI neutral at 44.9

• Fundamentals: Losses narrowing but still negative EPS (-$1.47), negative profit margin (-13.2%)

🔍 Earnings Date Check:

Earnings on 2026-02-24, recommended expiration 2026-01-16 is well before earnings, avoiding earnings volatility risk.

💡 Trade Management:

• Entry: Place limit order to sell the 2.5 call at $0.50 and buy the 3.0 call at $0.30 for $0.20 net credit.

• Target: Close trade at 50% of max profit ($0.10) or if stock approaches $2.50 resistance.

• Stop: Consider exiting if AMC rises above $2.70 (breakeven) with strong momentum.

• Time Stop: Close 3-5 days before expiration to avoid last-minute gamma risk.

🔒 Pricing Validation:

• 2.5 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM at $2.31)

• 3.0 Call intrinsic value: $0 (OTM)

• Spread width: $0.50, net credit $0.20, max risk $0.30 confirmed

• Put-call parity holds within tolerance

🔍 Market Overview:

AMC is under pressure from poor box office results during the holiday season, with a recent 1.07% decline today to $2.31. The stock is trading below key moving averages, indicating bearish momentum. The broader market environment includes high implied volatility for AMC options (IV Rank 100%), favoring premium selling. There is no near-term earnings event risk until late February 2026, allowing for defined-risk premium collection strategies. The sector, including GME and DIS, is mixed but generally pressured by streaming competition and consumer behavior shifts. The Fed rate decision and CPI data release in 5 days may affect market sentiment broadly but are unlikely to directly impact AMC’s short-term technical setup.

---

This trade balances limited risk with a high probability of profit given the current elevated volatility, bearish technicals, and fundamental pressures. Confidence level is moderate to high due to strong IV sell signals and clear resistance near the short strike. Risk is capped at $30 per spread with a max reward of $20, suitable for disciplined premium sellers.