$AMC Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL AMC DEC 5 2.5/3.0 CALL SPREAD

I recommend a bear call spread because AMC’s options are currently very overpriced relative to historical volatility, with a 30-day Clean IV around 70%+ versus a baseline historical volatility of 41.3%, indicating a strong premium selling opportunity. The stock trades at $2.44, below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with bearish MACD and RSI near neutral but closer to oversold levels, suggesting limited upside momentum. Additionally, the put/call volume ratio of 0.39 signals heavy call buying but also elevated risk for a pullback or sideways action. The upcoming earnings on 2026-02-24 are well beyond this expiration, so no earnings volatility is priced here. The max pain price is near $2.50, close to current prices, supporting a neutral to slightly bearish stance.

Sell AMC Dec 5 2.5/3.0 Call Spread
Stock Price: $2.44 | Entry: Sell 2.5 Call (Bid approx. $0.30), Buy 3.0 Call (Ask approx. $0.15) = Net Credit about $0.15

📊 Trade Metrics

• Max Risk: $0.35 (difference between strikes $0.50 - credit $0.15) = $35 per spread
• Max Reward: $0.15 (credit received) = $15 per spread
• Breakeven at expiration: $2.65 (2.5 strike + 0.15 credit)
• Probability of profit: Moderate to high given current price below 2.5 and technical bearishness
• Days to Expiration: 23 days (Dec 5, 2025)

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Historical Vol: 41.3%
• Clean IV near Dec 5: ~67.7% (significantly above baseline → SELL premium)
• IV Rank: 100% (strongly favors selling volatility)
• Expected daily move ±$0.13 (5.26%), well within the spread width
• No earnings event until Feb 24, 2026 (well after Dec 5 expiry)

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Delta of 2.5 Call ~0.41 (short leg)
• Delta of 3.0 Call ~0.20 (long leg)
• Net Delta slightly bearish/neutral, suitable for range-bound or mildly bearish outlook
• Theta positive (time decay benefits seller)
• Vega negative (benefits if implied volatility contracts)

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure shows AMC options are significantly overpriced relative to historical volatility, creating an edge for premium selling. The stock price at $2.44 is below key moving averages (20-day MA at $2.62, 50-day at $2.78, 200-day at $2.97), with bearish MACD and neutral RSI (36.64), indicating limited upside near term. The put/call volume ratio of 0.39 indicates heavy call buying but also a potential for volatility contraction or sideways movement. AMC recently reported Q3 earnings on Nov 5 with mixed results, and the market's max pain at $2.50 aligns with the short strike, increasing the chance the stock does not rally above 2.5 before expiration. Selling this call spread captures premium with defined risk and benefits from time decay and potential IV drop.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 83.5% vs Historical: 13.0% (very elevated)
• IV Rank: 100% (strong sell signal for premium)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$0.13 (5.26%) supports strike selection
• Max Pain: $2.50 (close to short strike)
• Technical: Price below all major MAs, MACD bearish, RSI neutral
• Fundamental: Negative EPS (-1.43), negative profit margin (-13.2%), no near-term earnings catalyst

🔍 Earnings Date Check

• Earnings on 2026-02-24
• Recommended expiration Dec 5, 2025 is well BEFORE earnings, suitable for premium decay trade, not earnings play.

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Sell 2.5 Call near bid $0.30, Buy 3.0 Call near ask $0.15, net credit $0.15
• Target: Close position at 50-70% of max profit (~$0.08-$0.10) or if price approaches 2.5 strike strongly
• Stop: Exit if AMC rallies above $2.70 before expiration
• Time Stop: Close 2 days before expiration to avoid gamma risk

📅 Economic Events

• CPI on Nov 13 (tomorrow) may affect market volatility broadly but no direct AMC catalyst
• Fed rate decision Dec 10 (after expiration)

🔒 Pricing Validation

• Intrinsic value: Stock at $2.44, 2.5 Call OTM, 3.0 Call further OTM → spread intrinsic = 0
• Put-Call parity holds at these strikes and prices
• Credit spread pricing logical: short leg premium > long leg cost

🔍 Market Overview

AMC is in a bearish technical regime, trading well below its moving averages, with negative fundamental profitability and no imminent earnings. The sector (consumer discretionary/leisure) remains challenged, and AMC's recent Q3 report showed revenue decline but some margin improvement. The high implied volatility and IV rank of 100% indicate market pricing in high uncertainty or speculative interest, favoring premium selling strategies. The max pain near $2.50 supports the idea that the stock will likely stay below this level near term, making a bear call spread appropriate.

Confidence Level: Moderate to High
Risk Assessment: Limited risk of $0.35 per spread with max reward of $0.15. Risk is defined and manageable. The main risk is a sharp rally above $3.0, which is unlikely given current technicals and fundamentals but possible in a volatile market.

---

Summary: Sell the AMC Dec 5 2.5/3.0 call spread for about $0.15 credit with stock at $2.44. This trade capitalizes on elevated IV and technical weakness, offering defined risk and steady premium decay.