$AMC Options Intelligence

🎯 SELL AMC SEP 19 3.00/3.25 CALL SPREAD

I recommend a short call vertical spread because AMC’s implied volatility is extremely elevated (IV Rank 99%), making premium expensive and favorable for selling strategies. The 3.00 to 3.25 call spread captures potential resistance near $2.97, just below the technical resistance level, while limiting risk if AMC breaks higher. The term structure shows all near-term options are overpriced relative to the 47.9% baseline volatility, with clean IV around 62-64%, supporting premium selling. Additionally, the put/call volume ratio of 0.09 signals very bullish call buying, so a defined-risk call spread is safer than naked calls. The next earnings is Nov 5, so this September 19 expiry avoids earnings risk. AMC’s current price is $2.90, just below resistance at $2.97, making the 3.00 short strike a logical choice to collect premium near resistance.

Sell AMC Sep 19 3.00 Call, Buy AMC Sep 19 3.25 Call
Stock Price: $2.90 | Entry Credit: approx. $0.10 (mid bid/ask between 3.00 call ~0.15 and 3.25 call ~0.05)

📊 Trade Metrics

• Max Profit: $10 per spread (credit received) if AMC ≤ $3.00 at expiry
• Max Loss: $15 per spread if AMC ≥ $3.25 at expiry
• Breakeven: $3.10 (3.00 + 0.10 credit)
• Win Probability: Moderate, as resistance at $2.97 may cap upside short term
• Days to Expiration: 3 days (very short-term)

📈 Term Structure & Volatility Analysis

• Baseline 90-day Volatility: 47.9%
• Sep 19 Clean IV: ~62-64% (overpriced → sell premium)
• IV Rank: 99% (very high, favors selling volatility)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.09 (heavy call buying, so defined risk important)
• Market Maker Max Pain: $3.00 (aligns with short strike)
• Earnings Date: Nov 5, 2025 (trade expires well before earnings)

📈 Greeks & Volatility

• Delta (3.00 Call): ~0.34 (moderate)
• Theta: Positive for seller, time decay accelerates profit
• Vega: Negative for seller, benefits if IV contracts after entry

🎯 Why This Trade

The term structure shows near-term options are overpriced relative to historical volatility, creating a strong edge for selling premium. AMC’s price is currently $2.90, near the technical resistance at $2.97, confirmed by recent analysis indicating resistance at $2.97 and support at $2.75. The call spread caps risk while allowing profit if AMC stalls or pulls back below resistance. The recent news of AMC’s special event "IT" screenings is a positive catalyst but unlikely to drive a sharp short-term spike beyond resistance immediately. With IV Rank at 99%, selling premium is optimal. The short 3.00 call aligns with max pain and technical resistance, making this spread a prudent defined-risk bearish-to-neutral play for the next 3 days.

📊 Pro Analysis

• Current IV: 70.6% vs Historical: 59.1% (overpriced)
• Expected Daily Move: ±$0.13 (4.45%) supports tight strike selection
• Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.09 (very bullish call skew, use spreads to limit risk)
• Technical: Price near resistance $2.97, RSI neutral at 52.33, MACD bullish but weak
• Fundamental: Negative EPS and net income, but recent event-driven optimism

🔍 Earnings Date Check

Earnings Nov 5, 2025 → Sep 19 expiry is well before earnings → ✅ No earnings risk

💡 Trade Management

• Entry: Place limit order to sell the 3.00 call and buy the 3.25 call for a net credit around $0.10
• Target: Close position if AMC falls below $2.85 or after collecting ~50% of max profit
• Stop: Buy back spread if AMC breaks above $3.25 with strong momentum
• Time Stop: Close 1 day before expiration to avoid gamma risk

📅 Market Overview

The Fed is holding rates steady but signaling possible cuts ahead, keeping markets cautious. AMC’s event-driven news with the "IT" screenings has sparked short-term interest, pushing the stock above its 20-day MA ($2.82) but still below 50-day ($2.99) and 200-day MA ($3.25), indicating resistance overhead. The overall sector is mixed, and AMC’s fundamentals remain weak, so buying premium is risky. Elevated IV and a high put/call volume skew favor selling premium with defined risk. The geopolitical backdrop adds some market uncertainty, reinforcing a conservative short-term spread over naked options.

🔒 Pricing Validation

• 3.00 Call intrinsic: max(0, 2.90-3.00) = 0, trading ~0.15 → above intrinsic ✅
• 3.25 Call intrinsic: 0, trading ~0.05 → above intrinsic ✅
• Put-Call Parity holds within tolerance for these strikes and expiry ✅
• Spread max loss $0.25 - credit $0.10 = $0.15 debit risk confirmed ✅

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Confidence Level: Moderate to High for short-term premium selling given very high IV, technical resistance at $2.97, and event-driven but limited upside catalyst. Risk is limited by the vertical spread structure, with defined max loss of $15 per spread.

Risk Assessment:
• Risk limited to $15 per spread if AMC rallies above $3.25 in 3 days
• Potential for assignment low as short call is slightly OTM
• Market can gap up on unexpected news, so tight stops advised
• Time decay and IV contraction work in favor of this trade

This trade balances the current elevated volatility environment, technical resistance, and event-driven momentum for AMC on September 16, 2025, with a short 3-day horizon.